In July, President Obama said he had been “encouraged” by a call Russian President Vladimir Putin had initiated to discuss Syria. The Russians, Obama declared, “get a sense that the Assad regime is losing a grip over greater and greater swaths of territory” and “that offers us an opportunity to have a serious conversation with them.”

Not for the first time, Obama was supposing that Putin could be enlisted in a diplomatic settlement to the Syrian civil war. Not for the first time, Obama appears to have badly misread the Russian ruler.

Far from abandoning its support for the Assad regime, Moscow appears to be doubling down. Analysts believe Russia may be preparing to deploy 1,000 or more military personnel to Syria and to carry out air operations in support of Assad forces. Syrian rebels already have reported seeing Russian aircraft over territory they control.

Putin’s strategy has been consistent. All along, he’s aimed to block any U.S.-backed move to remove Bashar al-Assad from power and aimed to force the West to embrace the regime as a partner in fighting the Islamic State.

By preparing to deploy Russian ground and air forces to Syria, Putin is acknowledging a truth that Obama has refused to accept: Any political agenda for Syria’s future is meaningless unless it’s backed by power on the ground. Assad will depart only if the balance of military force makes an opposition victory inevitable and imminent.

If the United States had provided even the modest support to Syrian rebels that Obama promised but did not deliver – much less the more muscular effort proposed by many of his advisers – Moscow probably would not risk its own troops and aircraft. If Obama wishes to see the U.S. vision for Syria prevail over Russia’s, it will take more than phone calls.

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