Evening Update
Periods of rainfall continue this evening with areas of moisture riding north ahead of a frontal system to our west.

The radar image below shows how the rain is flowing northward. Notice the large area of rain to the south, some torrential rainfall will be arriving late tonight and tomorrow.

Expected rainfall totals tomorrow evening continue to be impressive. The map below shows widespread 3 to as much as 5 inch amounts of rain for most of Maine. The good news is since it’s been so dry there won’t be river flooding.

Morning Blog
I shut off my irrigation system this morning. Although we have had less than 50% of the average rainfall the past couple of months, we are about to undergo a huge shift in the pattern and when the sunshine returns early next week, the water deficit could be completely gone.

Several Inches Of Rain
It’s been a great stretch of weather and as if on cue, Mother Nature is throwing us a huge curveball to close out September and begin October. We haven’t had many days where it rains all day this entire year, but a day or two or three where you consider them washouts are likely on the way. Remember, even during a rainy day, there are small breaks in the rain.

The weather map for tomorrow shows a stalled out frontal system along the east coast. Waves of low pressure will induce and enhance rainfall along this front. The morning commute Wednesday will likely be a mess with torrential rain in some areas causing flooding of low lying roads. Areas that typically see lots of water ponding on the roads during these events will once again be under water.

I tweeted yesterday (@growingwisdom) about checking window wells, gutters, and sump pumps. The flood watch which is currently posted is for mostly street flooding, the type occurring very quickly, but mostly a problem for commuters. Any time we see a lot of rain in a short of period of time, some of it can run into basements. That’s my reasoning for mentioning to check the things that remove or protect water from getting into your house.

The good news is rivers and streams are at levels far below flood stage so even areas that ended up with over 4 inches of rain in this first round tonight through Thursday won’t see that type of flooding.

Winds will be quite gusty along the coast on Wednesday and continue with a long duration flow from the north northeast. There could be isolated power outages tomorrow in some areas, but these will be limited. There is a small craft advisory posted for much of the coast. I don’t expect the winds to penetrate very far inland, no more than few miles at best. Some beach erosion is also possible in the next 48 hours.

After the heavy rain tomorrow, clouds and scattered showers continue Thursday and Friday. The rainfall during this time will be light and not amount to very much. Then all our attention turns to the tropics to see what our latest tropical storm will do.

Tropical Storm Joaquin
The models are all over the place with this storm and the eventual track will impact how much rainfall we do see this weekend. There’s a chance this could take a track similar to Sandy heading into New Jersey or New York and keeping the heaviest rain south.

Joaquin isn’t forecast to become a hurricane, but will bring strong winds and torrential rain in its path. The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast runs through Sunday. Notice how the storm is hundreds of miles off the coast. If it makes a turn to the left, we miss much of the heaviest rain. If it comes up the coastline and into New England, some areas, especially west of the track, will see another 3-6 inches of rain.

The models we use to forecast these tropical storms are leaning towards a track into the mid-Atlantic, but this is so far away, much can change. I’ll be updating frequently here and on Twitter as new information is available, but we won’t know with much certainly for a few days how the weekend forecast is going to play out. Image below is courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

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