It’s another mild morning across southern Maine, but unlike yesterday, a cooler wind off the water will prevent reading from rising very much. There will be some sunshine, but also a lot of clouds.

Not Cold Again
You can thank a flow of mild air for the frostless morning. Temperatures have been fairly steady all night after reaching the mid-60s on Tuesday for a glorious Indigenous summer afternoon. (Formally Indian Summer) Yesterday won’t be the final time we see mild air this fall, the pattern does bring in some cold shots of air during the next two to three weeks, but I also see some very mild periods as well right into November.

Temperature Fluctuations
We are going to continue to move air masses into and through Maine over the next several days. The process of moving one air mass into another is called advection and both warm and cold air advection can be very powerful. I’ve seen temperatures rise over 30 degrees in the dark as southerly winds propel tropical air northward. We can all likely recall equally large drops as cold ocean air is advected into the coastline as the winds turn easterly.

After a cool night tonight it’s back over 60 degrees on Thursday for another October treat. Unfortunately, I don’t expect a lot of sunshine to go along with these milder temperatures. There could be a shower, but if you see one it won’t amount to very much at all.

Cooler, But Dry Weekend
Cooler temperatures return for the weekend many spots Saturday morning will have a return to frosty conditions. Some clouds will increase Sunday making Saturday the brighter of the two weekend days.

The foliage is in peak color now and there is significant leave loss in the northern mountains and northern Maine. The two southern most counties of Maine have some of the best color this weekend as does the immediate coastline where color tends to be just a bit later than inland areas.

The next 10 days continues to be very dry. Presently I don’t foresee any significant rain for the foreseeable future. If I look at the long-range charts there is some hint of a changing pattern with more rain in the closing days of October or early in November. It would be quite typical for this dry pattern to break as we close out the 10th month.

The upper wind pattern is forecast to remain progressive through the end of the month, but configured in such a way warmer than average conditions will be more prevalent. This means yesterday’s cold air could be the coldest air we see for the rest of October!

If you are wondering if there is any correlation between early cold and a cold and snowy winter, the answer is no. As a matter of fact, you can find anecdotal evidence of just the opposite here in New England. Back in 1979, when there was cold and snow early in October, the rest of the winter ended up as one of the mildest on record. In some parts of New England that year remains the benchmark for the least amount of snow recorded.

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