Falcons (3-2) at Patriots (4-2)

8:30 p.m. (NBC)

Outlook: A rematch of last season’s Super Bowl, which saw either the greatest comeback ever or the most embarrassing collapse. Can’t it be both? Oddly the rematch finds neither team especially dominant thus far in 2017. Atlanta just lost at home to the Dolphins and Matt Ryan has been a long way from great, while New England might be 3-3 right now if not for the good fortune of officiating that really hurt the Jets last week. Figure an advantage in revenge motivation will be offset by the Pats’ home-field edge. I don’t believe I ever will pick against Tom Brady at home, except when a lack of sobriety might be my only excuse.

Spread: Patriots -3

Prediction: Patriots, 31-26


Saints (3-2) at Packers (4-2)

1 p.m. (Fox)

Outlook: If ever I needed an Upset of the Week pick to count on the home field and the power of intangibles, it’s here. It’s more than Aaron Rodgers being out because of a broken collarbone. The Packers are beat up beyond that, especially on the offensive line, making this a foreboding first start for Brett Hundley. And the Saints are no longer awful on defense, while Drew Brees shows no signs his prime is leaving him. But the hunch in the gut won’t go away. Hundley will be good enough, Green Bay’s defense will arise bigly, and Rodgers will end the game with a sideline smile.

Spread: Saints -5

Prediction: Packers, 27-23

Other games

At Dolphins (3-2, -3) over Jets (3-3), 23-17: If Adam Gase’s game plan is on point, Jay Ajayi should have a big, clock-dominating day against a Jets run defense allowing a fat 4.6 yards per carry. That’s why the Jets should lose.

 At Bills (3-2, -3) over Buccaneers (2-3), 21-17: Ryan Fitzpatrick is on call because Jameis Winston will play with a sprained shoulder, which is the perfect reason to favore Buffalo in a defensive scrum.

 Panthers (4-2, -3) over At Bears (2-4), 23-16: The Panthers are 3-0 on the road and playing with extra rest. Their run-D will limit Jordan Howard and force the game into Mitch Trubisky’s green hands.

 Titans (3-3, -51/2) over At Browns (0-6), 27-23: I give the Browns a big shot at home despite their astonishing run of 25 losses in 26 games and DeShone Kizer (again) at QB.

 Jaguars (3-3, -3) over At Colts (2-4), 24-16: Home underdog in a division game tempts, but the Colts don’t have much to offer other than a propensity to blow leads.

Cardinals (3-3, +31/2) over Rams (4-2), 31-23: L.A. is the home team for this breakfast game, but it’s in London. Arizona is strong against division rivals, and a revitalized Adrian Peterson should find leg room vs. the suspect Rams run defense.

 At Vikings (4-2, -51/2) over Ravens (3-3), 19-13: Jerick McKinnon should make his fantasy owners happy again vs. a bad Baltimore run defense.

 Cowboys (2-3, -6) over At 49ers (0-6), 24-20: San Francisco has lost five straight by three points or fewer, an NFL record. The Cowboys are coming off a bye, though, and facing first-time starting QB C.J. Beathard.

 Seahawks (3-2, -5) over At Giants (1-5), 20-17: Not sure Seattle is all that special this year, particularly on the road, but they still have enough defensive might to stop the depleted Giants.

 At Steelers (4-2, -5) over Bengals (2-3), 24-20: Cincinnati has won two straight and is coming off a bye, but Pittsburgh’s No. 1-ranked pass defense will cool surging Andy Dalton.

 Broncos (3-2, even) over At Chargers (2-4), 19-17: Denver needs embattled Trevor Siemian to reassert himself. San Diego has won two straight, but I still trust the Broncos’ D more than the Chargers’.

 At Eagles (5-1, -41/2) over Washington (3-2), 27-21: Both QBs – Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins – are flying high. But it’s Wentz who’s won four straight and has the offensive pop.

Week 7 byes: Lions, Texans

Last week: 8-6 overall, 7-5-2 vs. spread

Season: 47-44, 36-49-6

– By Greg Cote, Miami Herald