PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Dolphins (4-6) at Patriots (8-2), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Outlook: I like the Dolphins with the points, if not quite outright. I think Miami will show some spine and compete hard. But there is too much of a talent shortfall.

Spread: Patriots -161/2

Prediction: Patriots 31-17

GAME OF THE WEEK

Saints (8-2) at Rams (7-3), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Outlook: There is a sameness to the Patriots’ always being good, but when the Saints are good again and the Rams are good for a change, that’s good for the NFL. Refreshing. The matchup I like that swings this pick for me is Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara vs. the Rams’ run defense, which is about as close to an Achilles heel as Los Angeles has. So I like the Saints.

Spread: Rams -21/2

Prediction: Saints 37-31.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Titans (6-4) at Colts (3-7), 1 p.m. (FOX)

Outlook: The Colts had beaten the Titans 11 straight times in this AFC South series before Tennessee finally won the last meeting. The Titans are the NFL’s only winning-record team with a negative point differential (minus-31); they just aren’t that good. Neither are the Colts, but they’re home and I’m hunching that T.Y. Hilton makes his fantasy owners smile.

Spread: Titans -3

Prediction: Colts 24-20.

OTHER GAMES

At Falcons (6-4, -10) over Buccaneers (4-6), 28-20: Tampa Bay is 1-4 on the road and without Jameis Winston again, but has won three of the past four in the division series and should keep it inside the betting line.

 At Bengals (4-6, -8) over Browns (0-10), 24-13: Poor Ohio. The good news? The winless Browns are not yet mathematically eliminated. The bad news? Their odds are 1 in 19 quintillion.

 At Chiefs (6-4, -10) over Bills (5-5), 27-20: Buffalo hasn’t been a good road team, but Tyrod Taylor’s starting again should at least give the Bills a shot.

 Panthers (7-3, -4) over At Jets (4-6), 20-17: The up-and-down Jets are a tempting but unreliable home underdog. Carolina is 4-1 away and could have tight end Greg Olsen and center Ryan Kalil back from injuries.

 At Eagles (9-1, -131/2) over Bears (3-7), 34-17: Doesn’t get any easier for Mitch Trubisky. Chicago’s best hope is that Philly’s in a letdown mode, with this game sandwiched between at Cowboys last week and at Seahawks in prime time on deck.

Seahawks (6-4, -61/2) over At 49ers (1-9), 23-13: The Seahawks have beaten the Niners eight consecutive times. Jimmy Garoppolo, please.

 At Raiders (4-6, -5) over Broncos (3-7), 24-21: Trendy upset pick. Denver has won the past two meetings with defense and could get a spark from Paxton Lynch’s starting. Bulletin, though: The Broncos’ once-vaunted defense isn’t very good right now.

Jaguars (7-3, -51/2) over At Cardinals (4-6), 19-13: Longtime Cardinals pass rusher Calais Campbell makes his return and brings a really strong Jacksonville defense with him. It’s why the Jaguars win, even with Blake Bortles.

 At Steelers (8-2, -14) over Packers (5-5), 34-16: The Sunday nighter might have been the Game of the Week if it had Aaron Rodgers in it. But Brett Hundley ain’t a-gonna outscore Big Ben in Pittsburgh.

 At Ravens (5-5, -71/2) over Texans (4-6), 24-21: Monday night gets a host Baltimore team that has won nine consecutive prime-time games and is playing really good defense lately.

Last week: 8-6 overall, 5-8-1 vs. spread.

Season: 91-69, 63-87-10

– By Greg Cote, Miami Herald