Two months before the midterm elections, Democrats hold a clear advantage over Republicans in congressional vote support, with antipathy toward President Trump fueling Democratic enthusiasm, even among those who stayed home four years ago, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.

The survey also points to broad unrest and frustration with the political system generally. More than 6 in 10 Americans say Trump and the Republican Party are out of touch with most people in the country. While Democrats fare better, a narrower 51 percent majority also judged them out of touch.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats had in January.

Because of the overall makeup of congressional districts, analysts have long said that Democrats would need a clear advantage on this “generic ballot” question, and in the national popular vote for the House, if they hope to flip the 23 seats needed to take control. The Post-ABC poll puts Democrats in a stronger position today than some other recent surveys, which showed them with an edge of about eight points on this measure.

Self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are slightly more likely than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to say they are absolutely certain to vote, by 80 percent to 74 percent.

Four years ago, when Republicans made gains in the midterm elections, they enjoyed a 10-point advantage on this question in Post-ABC surveys that fall, 71 percent to 61 percent.

The past three midterm elections – 2006, 2010 and 2014 – produced substantial losses for the party that held the White House. In 2006, Republicans lost control of the House, but they regained it four years later. In 2014, they captured control of the Senate. Trump’s victory in 2016 gave them full control of the executive and legislative branches.

Presidential approval has become a strong indicator of which party voters will support in midterms. More than 8 in 10 voters who disapprove of a president’s performance have backed opposition party candidates in recent midterm elections.

In the Post-ABC poll, more than 8 in 10 voters who approve of Trump support Republicans, while more than 8 in 10 of Trump disapprovers support Democrats. This puts Republicans at a clear disadvantage heading toward November.

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