Chiefs (5-0) at Patriots (3-2), 8:20 p.m. Sunday (NBC)

Spread: Patriots by 3 1/2

Outlook: The Chiefs have a very strong offense but a defense that makes their ‘D’ sound like a letter grade. New England is better positioned to limit Patrick Mahomes than Kansas City is to thwart Tom Brady. New England is awesome at home. The Chiefs’ secondary is beatable, and Brady has Gronk getting healthier, Josh Gordon fitting in, Julian Edelman back and Sony Michel emerging. The scoreboard might explode.

Prediction: Patriots, 45-37


Steelers (2-2-1) at Bengals (4-1), 1 p.m. Sunday

Spread: Bengals by 2 1/2

Outlook: The Steelers have won six straight in the series, the Bengals are 1-7 at home under Andy Dalton, and Big Ben is 14-2 at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh will pound James Conner against a defense subpar at stopping the run and Roethlisberger will take advantage of holes in the pass defense.

Prediction: Steelers, 28-24

Other games

Bears (3-1, -3) over At Dolphins (3-2), 23-16: Miami is coming off two straight dispiriting losses and Chicago has won three straight. Ryan Tannehill must outperform Mitch Trubisky – a big ask versus a top-tier Bears defense.

At Falcons (1-4, -3 1/2) over Buccaneers (2-2), 38-23: No team is more desperate than Atlanta, while Jameis Winston makes his first post-suspension start for Tampa. Falcons might have the NFL’s worst defense – except Bucs do! Ready, set, go, Matt Ryan.

Chargers (3-2, -1) over At Browns (2-2-1), 24-20: Dawg Pound is howling again because Browns, for a change, don’t stink. But don’t sleep on Chargers being playoff-good. Going team over venue.

Seahawks (2-3, -3) vs. Raiders (1-4), 23-16: Wembley crowd should like this matchup because Londoners casually following NFL think Seattle is still great and Raiders mystique still lives. Bonus: Marshawn Lynch’s first game vs. former longtime team.

At Vikings (2-2-1, -10 1/2) over Cardinals (1-4), 37-13: Last time Vikings thought they had a really easy home game, Buffalo won handily. Lesson learned. Minnesota is better all over the field.

At Jets (2-3, -2 1/2) over Colts (1-4), 23-20: Make it a home-field call, with nod to Jets’ pretty solid pass defense.

Panthers (3-1, +1) over At Washington (2-2), 24-17: Upset! (Sort of). Washington attack has sputtered under Alex Smith, and stout Carolina ‘D’ gets big lift with Pro Bowl LB Thomas Davis coming off suspension.

At Texans (2-3, -10) over Bills (2-3), 20-17: Deshaun Watson is playing with tender ribs and Bills ‘D’ has forced eight turnovers in past three games.

Rams (5-0, -7) over At Broncos (2-3), 30-20: Rams are NFL’s most complete team. Denver is 4-13 in its last 17 and Vance Joseph should be on coaching hot seat. Broncos are better at home, though, so bet-line gives pause.

At Cowboys (2-3, +3) over Jaguars (3-2), 19-17: Upset! Both teams have good defense – Jaguars’ is more celebrated but Dallas’ is underrated. Cowboys decidedly better at home. Jaguars far more prone to beating themselves.

At Titans (3-2, +2 1/2) over Ravens (3-2), 23-20: Upset! Two teams that win with defense, running and ball control. Make it a venue call as Tennessee has created one of NFL’s better home-field edges.

At Packers (2-2-1, -9 1/2) over 49ers (1-4), 31-16: That Aaron Rodgers has been pretty good but not fantastic will be a theme Al and Cris pound from the booth on Monday night. Lambeau still a scarier-than-most home edge.

Last week: 12-3 overall, 10-5 vs. spread.

Season: 53-23-2, 45-30-3

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