AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Patriots (12-5) at Chiefs (13-4), 6:40 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Spread: Chiefs by 3

Outlook: It’s funny to hear Tom Brady, of all people, wearing the underdog hat and playing the nobody-believes-in-us card. (Picture Bill Gates begging change at an intersection). But sure enough, Bill Belichick and Brady are underdogs here, and should be. It isn’t that Kansas City is unbeatable. It is that, mysteriously but without question, New England – so mighty in Foxborough – is so mediocre (3-5 on the road this season) away from home. The Pats have lost their last three playoff road games and New England’s 43-40 October win over KC was (of course) at home. Having said all that, I still give Brady and company a large upset shot. The Pats are in a record eighth straight AFC title game while the Chiefs, infamous postseason fizzlers, are in their first since 1993. Oh, and New England is 7-1 in its past eight games as an underdog. Still gotta roll with Kid Mahomes at that big Kansas City offense.

Prediction: Chiefs 30-24

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Rams (14-3) at Saints (14-3), 3:05 p.m. Sunday (Fox)

Spread: Saints by 31/2

Outlook: Nine of the last 10 conference championship games have been won by the home team. And New Orleans’ home-field edge is greater than most (15-2 in the past 17 games) and Sean Payton (6-0) has yet to lose at home in the postseason. The Saints reached and won the Super Bowl when last they held the No. 1 seed, in 2009. The Rams were last in a Super Bowl in 2001 (as St. Louis). Drew Brees and the home field are the loud differences in this game. The quiet one is the Saints’ edge on defense. Aaron Donald might bother Brees some, but Brees will bother Los Angeles’ defense more.

Prediction: Saints 34-27

Last week: 3-1 overall, 1-3 vs. spread

Season: 179-75-2, 145-104-7

– By Greg Cote, Miami Herald

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