Super Tuesday was an amazing day, though not for the reasons everyone’s focused on.
In a presidential year featuring the most confounding incumbent the nation has ever seen, Democrats were desperately seeking a candidate to unify the party and win in November – even before any major primary voting took place.
The confusion was evident early on, as Maine politicians struggled to find someone to endorse. Republican Susan Collins provided a cautionary note in 2016, saying she wouldn’t vote for Donald Trump – only to find him president shortly thereafter.
Veteran 1st District Congresswoman Chellie Pingree, stung after her early support of Hillary Clinton as a “super-delegate” in 2016, sat this one out. The new 2nd District congressman, Jared Golden, searched among two dozen contenders to find a “different Democrat.”
Golden’s first choice was Seth Moulton, the Massachusetts congressman and fellow veteran he said inspired him to run. Moulton dropped out last April, unable to get on the Democratic National Committee debate stage.
Golden finally turned to Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, another veteran who’d achieved slightly more visibility. Unfortunately, Bennet exited five days later.
That might seem a rookie miscue, but what was one to think of Pingree’s accomplished predecessor, Tom Allen, who served six terms and was a fixture on the Portland political scene?
On Feb. 25, Allen followed Mike Michaud, a six-termer from the 2nd District, in endorsing Michael Bloomberg, multi-billionaire and former New York mayor. A week later, Bloomberg was also out of the race, after the shortest, and most expensive, presidential campaign to date.
However embarrassing, these top-level endorsements accurately represented widespread voter disorientation. Fully half of New Hampshire voters – reputedly the nation’s savviest, thanks to the the “first primary” – were still trying to pick a candidate while entering the voting booth.
So what happened on Super Tuesday? Pundits proclaimed that Joe Biden had pulled off “a miracle,” that he was “back from the dead.” The available evidence paints a different picture – that voters had powerful cues, right from the DNC.
Biden had lackluster debate performances, fell far behind his rivals in fundraising, and did negligible organizing. It was no personal quality, words or tactics that allowed him to zoom from middle-of-the-pack to first place, all in a single day.
Instead, it was adept management by the DNC. After Bernie Sanders’ big win in Nevada, the alarm bells were ringing. Biden hadn’t won a single primary or caucus, and Sanders was building a lead that might prove insurmountable.
Biden won South Carolina, as expected, but then something remarkable occurred, though completely unremarked. Pete Buttigieg withdrew the next day, quickly followed by Amy Klobuchar, two young moderates demonstrating significantly greater voter appeal than the 77-year-old former vice president.
Such things have never happened before. Candidates drop out after they fall far behind and run out of money. At the time he exited, Buttigieg had more delegates than Biden. Klobuchar was rising as the only woman with a chance to win, after progressives gravitated to Sanders, not Elizabeth Warren.
The cues worked, spectacularly. Maine is a good example. Sanders led the final poll by 14%, yet two days later lost narrowly to Biden.
There are other possible reasons; Maine’s turnout was unexpectedly high, and this brought out more casual voters, more likely to respond to Biden’s middle-of-the-road than Sanders’ passion.
Although Sanders supporters are saying “It’s not over,” it’s hard to credit. As in 2008, when Clinton trailed Barack Obama, and 2016, when Sanders trailed Clinton, such deficits are daunting, since delegates are awarded proportionately; there are no “winner take all” primaries.
And if that proves true, Democrats will nominate another moderate favored by the establishment, as they have every time since 1972.
This may be enough to beat Trump and take the Senate. What it won’t do is address the urgent issues Democrats should be taking on: national health care based on Medicare; affordable college for all; much more robust housing subsidies; and taxing the rich to help pay for all three.
A President Biden would be by far the most experienced foreign policy hand since George H.W. Bush, a definite plus after Trump’s wild swerves. Biden may be able to galvanize world action on global warming from that base.
Making America democratic has had a long and tangled history, ever since the Framers tried to create a republic with overtones of monarchy. We’re advanced a long way since – expanding voting, and dramatically increasing elective offices.
Yet we’ve just witnessed a managed primary election. To achieve free and fair voting – may the best candidate win! – we’ll have to wait at least one more time.
Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, reporter, opinion writer and author for 35 years, has published books about George Mitchell, and the Maine Democratic Party. He welcomes comment at drooks@tds.net
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