When Tom Brady opted not to play a 21st season with the New England Patriots and instead signed in free agency with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he set off a roster transformation in Foxborough unlike any the NFL has seen in recent memory.
In free agency, Patriots lost five key defenders and a starting center. They cut longtime kicker Stephen Gostkowski. Short on salary cap space, their free agent pickups consisted of role players and special teams contributors. Instead of making a splash in the draft, potentially drafting Brady’s successor at No. 23 overall (Jordan Love, one rumored target, instead went to the Green Bay Packers a few picks later), Coach Bill Belichick opted for lesser-known prospects and scheme fits.
Then, eight Patriots – including four players who have won Super Bowls – made the decision not to play this season because of concerns related to the novel coronavirus pandemic, the highest number of opt-outs of any team in the NFL.
With all the changes, the Patriot Way is facing its stiffest challenge in two decades. Were it not for the coaching and player evaluation skills of Belichick, most around the NFL would be writing off the Patriots as a six-win team – or worse. Instead, following New England’s bargain signing of former league MVP Cam Newton to replace Brady, oddsmakers are favoring the Patriots as slight AFC East favorites over the Buffalo Bills.
The opt-outs seemed to catch everyone by surprise expect Belichick. The coach had no problem with the decisions; the only thing he asked of the players was to let him know of their intentions as early as possible so he could adjust the roster accordingly.
Belichick may be forced to play his rookies earlier than expected, which could prove particularly difficult given the limitations placed on offseason programs and training camp due to the pandemic.
Second-round choice Kyle Dugger could win the starting job at safety after Patrick Chung opted out and Duron Harmon was traded to Detroit. Second-rounder Josh Uche and third-rounder Anfernee Jennings may have to fill out linebacker corps following Dont’a Hightower’s decision to opt out, which left the Patriots without their top four linebackers from a year ago. Ben Watson’s retirement and Matt LaCosse’s opt-out leaves Larry Izzo as the only experienced tight end, which opens the door for third-rounders Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene to be rushed into service.
And with Gostkowski gone, fifth-rounder Justin Rohrwasser will take over the kicker job. Keep in mind, though, that Belichick has a reputation as being perhaps the NFL’s best evaluator of kickers.
Because of the volume of changes, this season could go either way for the Patriots. It’s easy to see why they could struggle, and it remains to be seen how effective Newton or Jarrett Stidham will be in succeeding Brady. Based on last year’s record, the Patriots will play the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL – not an easy task for a team that is down 5,529 snaps and 86 starts on offense from last season, along with 4,343 snaps and 81 starts on defense.
But Belichick’s coaching is reason enough to think this team has nine- or 10-win potential, and it does have a few things working in its advantage. The Patriots have perhaps the best trio of man-to-man cornerbacks in the league, led by Stephon Gilmore, and Belichick is great building a defense from the back to the front by emphasizing the secondary. If Newton, who is said to be recovered from the injuries that ended his tenure in Carolina, wins the starting quarterback job, he could lead a respectable running offense.
They also have one surprising thing working in their advantage: cap space. Throughout free agency, the Patriots were one of the teams tightest against the cap. After they signed their 10 draft choices, they were less than $1 million under the cap and barely able to squeeze in Newton.
After that, the Patriots got some cap relief with settlements to former Patriots Antonio Brown and the late Aaron Hernandez. Then came the opt outs, which freed up a staggering $34 million of cap room this year and moved it into next season. The Patriots went from the least cap space to the second-most in the league, with $36.9 million in 2020. They are also well-positioned for next year, despite the movement of that much money into 2021, which will give them an advantage against other teams who may struggle to get under a salary cap that could be as low as $175 million as a result of financial losses stemming from the pandemic.
But while the possibility remains they could add a player during training camp – rumors have connected New England to unsigned pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney – what the Patriots lack for now is star power. They project to have just three starters who have been to the Pro Bowl (although it’s possible that newly signed running back Lamar Miller could make that four). That puts them behind the Bills (five) and on par with the Miami Dolphins (three). The New York Jets have the fewest in the AFC East, with two, after trading Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks.
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