PATRIOTS THIS WEEK
Patriots (3-4) at Chargers (4-2), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Chargers by 5
Outlook: Is this game ripe for an upset? Why not? The Patriots have beaten the Chargers six times in a row, including 45-0 last year, with Bill Belichick’s defense limiting QB Justin Herbert to 49% accuracy and 3.9 yards per attempt with two picks. Straight up, this time I like Chargers coming off a bye, but I will still lean on those pesky Patriots with the points.
Prediction: Chargers, 27-23

GAME OF THE WEEK
Buccaneers (6-1) at Saints (4-2), 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Spread: Buccaneers by 5 1/2.
Outlook: Tampa, off four wins in a row, visits a Saints squad that has won two straight and given the Bucs fits lately. Prior to Tampa’s 30-20 playoff win last season, the Saints had won five in a row in this division rivalry – with two wins over Tom Brady by a combined 72-26 last year. Still,I can’t not trust Brady and that big offense to find a way to win, but watch the Saints prove the bet line a bit too big.
Prediction: Buccaneers, 27-23

UPSET OF THE WEEK
Eagles (2-5) at Lions (0-7), 1 p.m. (FOX)
Spread: Eagles by 3 1/2.
Outlook: After seven consecutive losses for the NFL’s last winless team, Coach Dan (Man) Campbell finally gets to bite somebody’s kneecap off. Detroit is a bad team, but is due some luck having lost by two points to the Ravens and Vikings. Beating a subpar Philly team limping after off two straight losses isn’t so much a strong hunch as a persisting one.
Prediction: Lions, 27-23.

OTHER GAMES

@Bills (4-2, -13 1/2) over Dolphins (1-6), 34-19: Buffalo is second in scoring and tied for first in fewest points allowed. Miami ranks 29th in scoring and 31st on defense. Buffalo is on a 9-1 run at home. And Josh Allen has 19 touchdown passes in seven career starts vs. Miami. Need I go on?

@Falcons (3-3, -3) over Panthers (3-4), 24-17: Atlanta has won (and covered) six games in a row in this AFC South scrum, and Matt Ryan is waayy better than a a struggling Sam Darnold without Christian McCaffrey.

49ers (2-4, -3 1/2) over @Bears (3-4), 19-17: Jimmy Garoppolo was shaky in his return from injury last week and Bears rookie Justin Fields is really struggling. But I’m still saddling up the home dogs with that extra half-point.

@Browns (4-3, -3 1/2) over Steelers (3-3), 23-20: Both rivals should be rested, with Browns having played last Thursday and Steelers off a bye. Baker Mayfield is expected to play with a balky left shoulder, but Case Keenum is a decent backup and running back Nick Chubb is expected back.

Titans (5-2, +1 1/2) over @Colts (3-4), 30-23: The Titans handled the Colts 25-16 in Week 3, but these two have split 5-5 over past 10 meetings. If Titans bring the same defensive intensity that beat Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz will struggle.

Bengals (5-2, -10 1/2) over @Jets (1-5), 37-6: The Jets are missing QB Zach Wilson and starting Mike White. How much fun will Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have against a Jets D that just allowed 54 points by Mac Jones and Pats?

Rams (6-1, -14 1/2) @over Texans (1-6), 28-16: QB Tyrod Taylor might start (or at least be ready to come in) for first time since Week 2, which gives Houston – outscored 62-8 in its last two games – a shot at covering.

@Seahawks (2-5, -3) over Jaguars (1-5), 24-17: Seattle avoided its first four-game losing streak since 2009 and the downturn from injured Russell Wilson has been extreme, but Geno Smith does enough here to cover a small number.

@Broncos (3-4, -3) over Washington (2-5), 27-16: The edge here is on defense. Denver’s is pretty good. Washington’s gives up the most points in the league. The concern is Teddy Bridgewater (five picks in three games) being stupid-sloppy again.

Cowboys (5-1, -1 1/2) over @Vikings (3-3), 37-31: Sunday night stage is an anticipated air-show shootout between Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. The pick here assumes Prescott (calf strain) will be good to go as expected. Dallas is 1-7 in its last eight prime-time games, but that’s a trend about to end.

@Chiefs (3-4, -10) over Giants (2-5), 34-21: The Monday night boothers will be treating this like a nationally televised autopsy: What is wrong with Kansas City!? But with Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golloday iffy again, , make it a ninth straight prime-time loss for Giants.

Bye weeks: Raiders (5-2), Ravens (5-2)
Last week: 6-7 overall, 8-4-1 vs. spread.
Overall: 64-43, 50-55-2

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