PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Patriots at Dolphins, 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Spread: Dolphins by 3 1/2

Outlook: If I’m not leading the Dolphins bandwagon, I’m damn sure near the steering wheel after rating Miami No. 5 in my NFL team rankings and placing the Dolphins in the “Super Bowl contenders” category. New England has lost in seven of past nine trips to Miami, so Bill Belichick had the Patriots in town since Tuesday trying to get used to the brutal heat. (Dear Bill, I’ve lived here my whole life. Still not used it it).

Prediction: Miami, 31-16

GAME OF THE WEEK
Buccaneers at Cowboys, 8:30 p.m. (NBC)

Spread: Buccaneers by 21/2

Outlook: Dallas has this game’s two most dynamic defensive players in Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs, and I see a messy pocket for the immobile Tom Brady behind a line missing two injured starters and with security blanket Gronk gone. Prime-time trends smile on Dallas, with the Cowboys on a 6-0 run against the spread at night, and Bucs on a 1-9 skid covering under the lights.

Prediction: Dallas, 28-27

UPSET OF THE WEEK
Eagles at Lions, 1 p.m.

SPREAD: Eagles by 4

OUTLOOK: The spotlight from Hard Knocks, a quotable alpha coach in Dan Campbell and a strong preseason have given Detroit a bit of buzz. Despite Jared Goff, I see Lions on the upswing, especially with an improved defense I expect to be sneaky-good. And D’Andre Swift and some other weapons might make even Goff look good; well, decent.

PREDICTION: Detroit, 23-20

OTHER GAMES

• 49ers (-7) over @Bears, 19-16: How ready is Trey Lance to be the 49ers’ QB1 while seasoned Jimmy Garoppolo waits in the pen? Justin Fields should do enough by air and land to keep a bad Bears team inside a bet-line that flatters San Francisco.

• @Bengals (-6 1/2) over Steelers, 27-16: Cincy reached the Super Bowl last year and is due a sizable drop-off, but it might not show here as Pittsburgh experiences a steep drop-off of its own: Ben Roethlisberger to Mitch Trubisky.

• Ravens (-7) over @Jets, 28-13: Joe Flacco will start against his longtime former team while Zach Wilson’s knee heals. Baltimore has a few notable players battling back from injuries, but Lamar Jackson has plenty left to dominate a bad opponent.

• @Commanders (-3) over Jaguars, 24-20: Fantasy geeks are all in on Trevor Lawrence. More than that, new Jags Coach Doug Pederson knows Commanders QB Carson Wentz well from their days in Philly together. Still, the better squad is the home team.

• @Panthers (-2) over Browns, 23-20: The domino effect of Deshaun Watson’s 11-game Cleveland suspension leaves us this bit of tasty intrigue: Baker Mayfield, now the Panthers QB, facing the team that discarded him in a bitter divorce.

• Colts (-7) over @Texans, 30-10: The Week 1 matchup with the least chance of an upset. Indy upgrades with Matt Ryan at QB, but it’s Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy owners who should be licking chops.

• @Titans (-5 1/2) over Giants, 24-16: Tennessee was the AFC’s No. 1 seed last season before fizzling in playoffs, but I see a big drop this year. The Titans are still plainly better than the Giants, though.

• Packers (-2) over @Vikings, 27-23: Minnesota should be a trendy upset pick, if only because the Vikings have been a bit of a nemesis for the Packers, winning two of the last three meetings and eight of the last 13. But the Packers defense is really good.

• Chiefs (-6) over @Cardinals, 31-27: Will Patrick Mahomes miss departed Tyreek Hill? Well, duh. But maybe not as much as Kyler Murray misses DeAndre Hopkins while he serves a six-game suspension. Mahomes still has more weapons.

• @Chargers (-3 1/2) over Raiders, 28-24: Vegas has a special teams advantage here and may need it, because Justin Herbert’s attack enjoys an edge and so does the Chargers D.

• Broncos (-6 1/2) over @Seahawks, 24-20: The Seahawks going from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith at QB is a huge downturn. Still, I think an amped-up home crowd and Rashad Penny help keep the loss inside the bet-line.

2021 record: 172-99-1 overall; 140-130-2 vs. spread.

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