Just three months ago scientists issued a report with a dire warning: Utah’s Great Salt Lake, after decades of drying that had only accelerated in recent years, was on track to disappear in five years. Now a record snowpack, fueled by more than 800 inches of snow during the season in some locations, offers a glimmer of hope for the Western Hemisphere’s largest salt water lake and an important economic driver for the state.

The Great Salt Lake reached its record low in November when it dipped to 4,188.6 feet above sea level, having lost more than 70 percent of its water since 1850 according to the report published in January by researchers at Brigham Young University. As of Wednesday, however, the lake had risen three feet in a little more than five months, primarily because of snow and rain dumped directly into the lake by a season-long series of water-loaded storms. Salt Lake City has seen its seventh snowiest season on record and among the most snow of any major U.S. city, with 87.3 inches.

The rising lake level is cause for both celebration and caution.

“While we celebrate our progress, we must continue to prioritize water conservation efforts and make sustainable water management decisions for the future of this vital ecosystem and for water users throughout the basin,” said Candice Hasenyager, director of the Utah Division of Water Resources, in an email.

This season’s record snowpack promises to push water levels even higher in the coming weeks as warmer temperatures melt the snow and runoff enters the lake. The statewide average snowpack, which is measured by calculating the amount of water contained in the snow, reached 30 inches on Thursday, beating the previous record of 28.8 inches in 1952.

“This year’s snowpack is nothing short of miraculous. After so many years of drought, this definitely feels like an answer to prayers,” said Brigham Young University ecologist Ben Abbott in an email. Abbott was the lead author for the January report, which warned of “widespread air and water pollution, numerous Endangered Species Act listings, and declines in agriculture, industry, and overall quality of life” if the lake were to vanish.

Despite its recent rise, the lake is still six feet below what is considered “the minimum acceptable elevation for the lake’s ecological and economic health,” according to Abbott. The snowpack, and what happens to its runoff, holds the key to whether the lake can make relatively quick progress toward that six-foot level. With an above-average snowpack, the lake level can increase 3 to 4 feet, according to Utah’s Division of Water Resources.

Even if the water level recovers to an “acceptable” level, the longer-term sustainability of the lake will depend on water management decisions and conservation efforts.

“Impressive winter precipitation and record-breaking snowpack have undoubtedly improved the situation of Great Salt Lake,” Hasenyager said. “However, it’s important to note that it will take much more than one above-average winter to fully replenish the lake’s water levels and address our long-term challenges.”

Historically, management of the Great Salt Lake watershed has prioritized human water usage over the health of the lake, with most of the river and stream water flowing toward the lake diverted for home, business and agricultural use. A February assessment by a team of Utah researchers and state officials found that 67 to 73 percent of the decline in water levels is due to natural and human water use.

Water levels have been further diminished in recent years by an intense drought, made more likely by climate change, which has only finally started to ease with this winter’s record snowfall. In March 2021, the federal drought monitor showed most of the state in extreme or exceptional drought, the two driest out of five drought categories. In the latest report, released Thursday, extreme and exceptional drought have disappeared, with most of the state classified under the two least severe drought categories.

Reduced inflow of freshwater into the lake results in high salinity levels that have far-reaching consequences including the release of toxic dust, poor air quality, the collapse of food webs and loss of brine shrimp that feed fish and shrimp sold worldwide. A 2019 assessment found that a further decline in lake levels could result in economic damage up to $1.69 billion to $2.17 billion per year, adding up to as much as $25.4 billion to $32.6 billion over 20 years.

More controlled water releases, such as the one coordinated by city and county officials in early March, could not only reduce flood risks this spring but also help restore the lake closer to a healthy water level. Yet regardless of how much improvement comes from spring runoff, Abbott stands by the cuts in water consumption he and his co-authors recommended in their report earlier this year.

“We’ve got to keep our eye on the conservation ball,” Abbott said. “To replenish Great Salt Lake, we need to reduce our consumptive water use by 30 to 50 percent.”

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