The measure that’s the biggest draw in this year’s elections, Question 3, marks the eighth time since 1914 that a referendum puts the state’s major private electric utility companies in the spotlight. So far, the results have been mixed.

1914: The outset of World War I in Europe coincided with a landmark skirmish in Maine, a people’s veto referendum over creation of the original Public Utilities Commission. Supporters of this pioneering legislation turned a deaf ear to the utilities’ opposition and came out ahead, 67,368 to 37,008.

1929: Central Maine Power was center stage of this one and, as in 1914, the loser. This was a bill the Legislature sent out to referendum on whether a 1909 law banning the export of hydro-electric power generated in Maine should be repealed. In the vanguard of those favoring repeal was Chicago industrialist Samuel Insull, then-owner of CMP. Insull’s empire, which also controlled some of the state’s leading banks and businesses, saturated the state with double page newspaper ads and multiple mailings. His side lost, however, 64,044 to 54,070.

1973: Public Power I: This was a plan with close parallels to this year’s Pine Tree Power vote. With the election occurring during the 1973-74 energy crisis, voters had reason to be disaffected with the private power establishment. Nevertheless, 61% voted against that year‘s bid to overthrow it, 151,480 to 95,645. Championing the public power cause was Aroostook state Sen. Peter Kelley. Kelley’s views today remain substantially the same as they did when he mustered the 33,000 signatures necessary to put public power before the voters for the first time a half century ago and become its leading advocate. Now retired, Kelley also supports this year’s referendum. Asked by this columnist during a phone interview a few days ago what advice he had to offer the proponents, Kelley replied: “Get a quarter of a million and put it into TV and advertising.”

1980: Nuclear Power I: On the ballot here was an initiative to close down CMP’s Maine Yankee nuclear power plant in Wiscasset. CMP was the winner this time; the vote to close it down lost 233,198 to 161,181, or 59% to 41%.

1981: A proposal that foreshadows a prominent feature of this year’s Pine Tree referendum called for the popular election of the PUC itself. Though Question 3 would not go this far, its provision that the new company be governed by a board made up primarily of popularly elected members is taking a page from the 1981 proposal. CMP won this one, too, 62% to 38%.

1982: Nuclear Power II: A second proposal to close down Maine Yankee gained a bit more traction here. Still, as in 1980, it was defeated, this time 56% to 44%.

2021: The Corridor: CMP lost this battle 59% to 41%. The outcome of a Cumberland County jury verdict this spring, ruling the vote came too late in the construction schedule, may mean that the company has not yet lost the war.

2023: Public Power II: The greater access major utilities have to campaign funding is again a central characteristic – though if Maine’s past voting patterns are any indication such an advantage has not always been a guarantor of success.

What will be the verdict this time?

The outcome of this year’s referendum and, for that matter, nearly all referendums, is more difficult to predict than candidate elections. That’s because there are seldom any specific party identifications to which to anchor the result. In candidate elections, most voters ordinarily retain an allegiance to the nominees of their own parties. Such an identification does not as often occur in referendum voting. The uncertainty is all the more reason to vote this year.

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