PATRIOTS THIS WEEK
Patriots (4-11) at Bills (9-6), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Bills by 13
Outlook: The Patriots are coming off a surprise win over Denver and upset the Bills 29-25 back in Week 7. It won’t happen again. Buffalo is surging, and with a victory here can still win the AFC East– if the Dolphins lose in Baltimore as the odds suggest. That’s major incentive. Buffalo also enjoys a rest/prep edge after playing last Saturday, while New England played Sunday night.
Prediction: Bills, 27-10

GAME OF THE WEEK
Dolphins (11-4) at Ravens (12-3), 1 p.m. 
Spread: Ravens by 3 1/2
Outlook: The Ravens can clinch the overall AFC No. 1 seed and a first-round playoff bye with a win, and Miami can clinch the AFC East title and stay alive for the top seed if it wins. Dolphins are really good, and just erased the old can’t-beat-a-good-team narrative by sticking a loss on Dallas last week. But the Ravens seem on a different level – and proved it last week with that 33-19 triumph at San Francisco.
Prediction: Ravens, 27-23

UPSET OF THE WEEK
Saints (7-8) at Buccaneers (8-7), 1 p.m.
Spread: Buccaneers by 2 1/2
Outlook: The Bucs would clinch the NFC South crown with a win and would remain in contention even in losing. The Saints are at death’s door and would be a long shot even if they win. Tampa beat its division rival in Week 4, but the Saints are sneaky dangerous despite the record, with as good or a better points-differential than the better-record Eagles, Browns, Bucs and Rams. New Orleans has won four of its past five trips to Tampa and also enjoys the edge of having played last Thursday.
Prediction: Saints, 22-19

OTHER GAMES

@Bears (6-9, -3) over Falcons (7-8), 24-17: Playoff hopes on life support times two here. Atlanta must win and pray; Chicago must win and believe in miracles. The Bears have come on a bit in the season’s second half (4-2 run) and have won four straight at Soldier Field. The Falcons are on a 3-14 skid away from home.

@Colts (8-7, -3 1/2) over Raiders (7-8), 23-20: Vegas hit a 63-point jackpot two weeks ago and upset the Chiefs last week, so the Raiders make a tempting dog. Stakes are higher for the home team, though. Indy enters holding the seventh and last AFC playoff ticket and would solidify that path with a win, while a loss would cripple the Colts’ hopes. Vegas, even by winning, would be a longshot. Will feel better about this pick if WR Michael Pittman (concussion) is a go for Indy. Hedge with LV and that extra half-point.

Rams (8-7, -5 1/2) over @Giants (5-10), 27-16: Desperate, spoiler-mode NYG has flipped QBs and will start Tyrod Taylor over Tommy DeVito. The Rams hold the NFC’s sixth playoff seed and must win to stay on track. Their offense has been smokin’ hot the past five games, led by Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams. The Giants, even if Taylor lends a spark, don’t have the point-making punch to keep up.

@Eagles (11-4, -11) over Cardinals (3-12), 30-20: Philadelphia is playoff-bound but unlikely to get the No. 1 seed, with San Francisco owning the tiebreaker edge. That and a bad foe could mean a complacent performance by the confounding Eagles, whose defense has allowed 30.8 points on average over the past five games. Arizona is in a 1-10 rut on the road but 6-3 in the past nine meetings with Philly. Leaning in on a Cardinals cover.

49ers (11-4, -12 1/2) over @Commanders (4-11), 34-16: San Francisco’s No. 3-ranked scoring offense faces Washington’s dead-last-by-a-mile scoring defense. Any questions? The Commanders have lost five in a row at home, six straight overall, and Coach Ron Rivera, whose pants are on fire, has pivoted on his passer, benching slumping Sam Howell for journeyman Jacoby Brissett. The Niners must win to keep a grip on the No. 1 NFC seed and a first-round playoff bye.

@Jaguars (8-7, -6 1/2) over Panthers (2-13), 24-13: Jacksonville cannot clinch playoff spot, but a win would hoist hopes while a loss would sink the likelihood to 40 percent. The dice roll is QB Trevor Lawrence. The Jags’ four-game losing streak has coincided with his spate of injuries, the latest a sprained right shoulder that figures to again limit his game. With much more to play for, though, I like Jacksonville at home vs. a Carolina squad that is 0-8 on the road.

@Texans (8-7, -5 1/2) over Titans (5-10), 26-17: Spoiler-mode Tennessee expects QB Will Levis back from injury. More significantly, Houston is hopeful C.J. Stroud returns as well after missing two games with a concussion. The Texans are in three-way tie for the AFC South lead but would lose tiebreakers. They sit eighth in the battle for seven conference playoff tickets and must win or see their hopes devastated. Houston beat Tennessee in OT two weeks ago without Stroud, and the Titans are 1-6 on the road.

@Seahawks (8-7, -3 1/2) over Steelers (8-7), 21-19: Seattle enters holding the seventh and last NFC playoff ticket and must win to stay on course. Pittsburgh has the same record, but in the more crowded AFC playoff hunt would be a longshot even with a win, and all but out with a loss. Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) could miss a fourth straight start, but backup Mason Rudolph played well in last week’s 34-11 rout of Cincinnati. If that Steelers team makes this trip, they’ll have a medium-high upset shot with a good chance to cover. But I lean toward the Seahawks outright at home and on a 6-0 roll when favored.

@Broncos (7-8, -3 1/2) over Chargers (5-10), 23-14: Denver Coach Sean Payton benching QB Russell Wilson for a third career start by Jarrett Stidham all but assures Russ will be on the offseason trade market. It also signals that the Broncos, though mathematically alive, are conceding they have next-to-zero playoff shot even if they win. The Broncos beat the Chargers 24-7 three weeks ago and are on an 8-1 home roll in the division rivalry. Los Angeles has lost six straight as an underdog.

@Chiefs (9-6, -7) over Bengals (8-7), 24-16: These teams have met in the past two AFC championship games, but its been a rough season for both. K.C. clinches the division title with a win but hasn’t impressed, slogging into this game in a 3-5 slump as Patrick Mahomes’ passer rating stands a middling 13th and a once-great offense is tied for 11th in scoring. And Cincy must win to be playoff-likely, facing near-elimination with a loss. I see a big game from K.C.’s defense.

Packers (7-8, +2) over @Vikings (7-8), 25-20: Upset! With no Monday game, this Sunday nighter wraps Week 17 with a division rivalry carrying big playoff weight. Winner will have around a 50-50 shot to make it; loser will be all but eliminated. Minnesota handled Green Bay 24-10 in October but things have changed. The Vikings have lost four of their last five, and Nick Mullens has tossed six INTs in the past two games and now is without missing TE T.J. Hockenson. Meanwhile, Packers QB Jordan Love is en fuego with 15 TDs and one pick across the past six games.

LAST WEEK: 10-6 overall, 5-11 vs. spread
SEASON: 147-93 overall, 114-117 vs. spread

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