Job growth in Maine is slowing as birth rates drop and more members of the vast baby boom generation retire. The trend will continue to complicate efforts by businesses to find workers over the next several years.

One bright spot has emerged in Maine’s labor force, according to a recent report by the state Department of Labor. Digital technology that’s boosting worker productivity in virtually all occupations, from trucking to office work, is helping to meet demand for products and services while contributing to higher wages and living standards.

Glenn Mills, deputy director of the Center for Workforce Research at the Department of Labor, said employers are navigating a tight labor market by finding ways to boost efficiency.

“Productivity improvements are happening everywhere,” he said.

In 2022, the largest share of the population was 55 to 64, with an average of 68% typically in the labor force. By 2032, that group will age to between 65 and 74, with an average of 25% in the labor force and others who will be retired.

The share of 25 to 54 “prime-age” people, or those with the highest rates of labor force participation, is not expected to change much, according to the Department of Labor. An average of 82% is in the labor force.

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The state reported 657,300 jobs in Maine in November, the most recent month for which statistics are available. It was an increase of fewer than 5,000 jobs, a fraction of 1%, from November 2023. Private sector jobs increased primarily in health care and social assistance and in leisure and hospitality, which the Department of Labor said continues a recent pattern.

Jobs rising at a much faster rate than the population in the 40 years through 2000 was an “aberration” in Maine’s history, the Department of Labor said. It was due to more women entering the workforce and the large baby boom generation that reached its peak age of labor force participation. The trend is now “partially playing out in reverse” as baby boomers retire.

Patrick Woodcock, president and CEO of the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, said the Department of Labor report “reinforces what we hear from members, that hiring and the labor market are acutely tight.”

Regulations and taxes are “always an issue,” he said. “Interestingly, housing has become a top issue.” Out-of-state health care and life sciences businesses are finding it increasingly hard to find housing, he said.

In Maine, which has one of the oldest populations in the U.S., several health care-related occupations are expected to grow the fastest in the 2022-32 decade. Employment of nurse practitioners, who are paid a median annual salary — half are more and half are less — of $123,140, is expected to grow by 35.4%, the fastest in Maine, according to the Labor Department.

The number of physician assistants, with a median salary of $131,540, is expected to increase by 22%. Even accounting for growth, the statewide numbers of nurse practitioners and physician assistants will still be modest, 1,804 and 971, respectively, by 2032.

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Maine’s strong tourism industry is helping the state’s restaurant business, which is expected to drive up demand for cooks by a strong 16.2% by 2032. That occupation has an annual median wage of $38,700.

Becky Jacobson, executive director of Hospitality Maine, which represents the restaurant, lodging and hospitality industry, credits the “fast casual sector,” which includes restaurants such as Chipotle Mexican Grill and Panera Bread, where cooking and other operations are done on site.

“That sector of the industry continues to grow,” she said. “They need people who are actually cooking fresh food on demand.”

However, the number of fast-food cooks is expected to decline by 15.5% by 2032, according to the Department of Labor. Their median annual wage is $31,720. “There’s definitely some shift in the industry with more automation in the fast-food world,” Jacobson said.

The need for workers is “across the board” and finding them is a constant effort, often requiring outreach to colleges and culinary arts schools, she said.

“High-end restaurants are looking for chefs and sous-chefs as much as the local diner is looking for a breakfast cook,” Jacobson said.

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Retail jobs, with a median annual salary of $35,470, are the largest group in Maine, at 18,547. The sector is expected to be down by 564 jobs by 2032, a decline of 3%. Curtis Picard, president and CEO of the Retail Association of Maine, said it could reflect the rising popularity of online buying and selling.

SOME SIDELINED BY TECHNOLOGY

Occupations expected to decline by 2032 comprise a catalog of jobs sidelined by technology: ushers, lobby attendants and ticket takers who are projected to fall in number by 10% as online streaming of movies and TV shows rise in popularity; shipping, receiving and inventory clerks whose jobs are jeopardized by automation and in some cases, warehouse robots, are expected to fall by nearly 11%; and executive secretaries and executive administrative assistants are being replaced by online scheduling and other digital operations.

A report in April underscored Maine’s predicament: labor markets in the last few years have hit targets for productivity and wage growth, but face a declining labor force. Real wages – employee pay after inflation – and productivity were up 10% in the last four years, according to the economic development report.

Giovanna Guidoboni, dean of the Maine College of Engineering and Computing and a professor of electrical and computer engineering, said technology will not replace workers, but will make work more efficient. Machines are not capable of critical thinking, an essential task in most jobs that makes people indispensable, she said.

Technology such as hand-held computers in cellphones increases worker productivity. It may allow employers to hire fewer workers, but many are already retiring, Guidoboni said. Digital technology, she said, “will help prevent a collapse in industry.”

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