PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Patriots (3-2 ) at Jets (3-2), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Outlook: Banged-up Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski with nine days to get ready are safe win-bet. After missing a couple practices early in the week, Brady returned as a full participant Friday. Yes it’s a division rival at home, and yes it’s a fair bet with points, but I just can’t do it.

Spread: Patriots +91/2

Prediction: Patriots, 34-20

GAME AND UPSET OF THE WEEK

Steelers (3-2) at Chiefs (5-0), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Outlook: Chiefs are the last unbeaten team and flex a better-than-average home field edge, while Steelers are coming off a 30-9 home loss to the Jags. So yes, any notion I have lost my mind might find ammunition with this pick, not an argument. And yet. This is more than a hunch. Steelers ousted Chiefs from last year’s playoffs 18-16 on the road. Ben Roethlisberger is 5-1 in his career vs. Chiefs, with a fat 118.7 passer rating. Andy Reid is 1-3 vs. Pitt with the Chiefs. And now TE Travis Kelce is out and D-stud Justin Houston is iffy. Chiefs are due a stumble, and I like Mike Tomlin having his guys uber-ready for a huge bounceback game.

Spread: Chiefs +4

Prediction: Steelers, 24-21.

OTHER GAMES

• At Falcons (3-1, -111/2) over Dolphins (2-2), 28-24: I like Miami with the points and give the Dolphins a medium shot at an outright upset, believe it or not; Atlanta is not invincible.

• At Vikings (3-2, +3) over Packers (4-1), 19-17: Vikings beat Pack two of past three including 2016 in Minneapolis, and do it again. Venue, big D and belief Stefon Diggs plays steer pick.

• At Saints (2-2, -41/2) over Lions (3-2), 31-23: New Orleans, coming off bye, gets over .500 for first time since late 2013. Matthew Stafford (ankle) will play but clearly doesn’t seem himself.

• At Washington (2-2, -101/2) over 49ers (0-5), 27-16: The Niners have lost past four by 11 total points, but Washington off bye get big game from Kirk Cousins vs. Niners, who have dropped 19 of past 21 roadies.

• At Ravens (3-2, -61/2) over Bears (1-4), 24-13: Ravens’ defense keeps rookie QB Mitch Trubisky in dues-paying mode in his second career start as Bears lose 11th straight road game.

• At Texans (2-3, -10) over Browns (0-5), 27-13: Houston defense is injury-ravaged (now without J.J. Watt), but doubt Browns’ tepid offense, resorting to Kevin Hogan, can take advantage.

• At Cardinals (2-3, +1) over Buccaneers (2-2), 21-20: Barely, but like home mini-dog with spark from newly acquired Adrian Peterson. Don’t see Cardinals that bad or Bucs that good.

• At Jaguars (3-2, -21/2) over Rams (3-2), 24-20: Two young, wildly inconsistent teams should distill to rising young RBs Todd Gurley and rookie Leonard Fournette vs. shaky run defenses.

• At Raiders (2-3, off board) over Chargers (1-4), 27-23: Game off-board for Derek Carr, but think he’ll be back as the team leaving Oakland for Vegas wins Vagabond Bowl over team that left San Diego for L.A.

• At Broncos (3-1, -111/2) over Giants (0-5), 31-3: Sunday nighter finds strong-D Denver off a bye and demoralized, shrunken Giants decimated, with Odell Beckham the latest casualty.

• At Titans (2-3, off board) over Colts (2-3), 23-20: Off-board because Marcus Mariota iffy again. But we know Andrew Luck is still out.

Last week: 6-8 overall, 3-10-1 vs. spread. Season: 39-38, 29-44-4

– By Greg Cote, Miami Herald

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