PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Patriots (3-2 ) at Jets (3-2), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Outlook: Banged-up Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski with nine days to get ready are safe win-bet. After missing a couple practices early in the week, Brady returned as a full participant Friday. Yes it’s a division rival at home, and yes it’s a fair bet with points, but I just can’t do it.

Spread: Patriots +91/2

Prediction: Patriots, 34-20

GAME AND UPSET OF THE WEEK

Steelers (3-2) at Chiefs (5-0), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Outlook: Chiefs are the last unbeaten team and flex a better-than-average home field edge, while Steelers are coming off a 30-9 home loss to the Jags. So yes, any notion I have lost my mind might find ammunition with this pick, not an argument. And yet. This is more than a hunch. Steelers ousted Chiefs from last year’s playoffs 18-16 on the road. Ben Roethlisberger is 5-1 in his career vs. Chiefs, with a fat 118.7 passer rating. Andy Reid is 1-3 vs. Pitt with the Chiefs. And now TE Travis Kelce is out and D-stud Justin Houston is iffy. Chiefs are due a stumble, and I like Mike Tomlin having his guys uber-ready for a huge bounceback game.

Spread: Chiefs +4

Prediction: Steelers, 24-21.

OTHER GAMES

At Falcons (3-1, -111/2) over Dolphins (2-2), 28-24: I like Miami with the points and give the Dolphins a medium shot at an outright upset, believe it or not; Atlanta is not invincible.

At Vikings (3-2, +3) over Packers (4-1), 19-17: Vikings beat Pack two of past three including 2016 in Minneapolis, and do it again. Venue, big D and belief Stefon Diggs plays steer pick.

At Saints (2-2, -41/2) over Lions (3-2), 31-23: New Orleans, coming off bye, gets over .500 for first time since late 2013. Matthew Stafford (ankle) will play but clearly doesn’t seem himself.

At Washington (2-2, -101/2) over 49ers (0-5), 27-16: The Niners have lost past four by 11 total points, but Washington off bye get big game from Kirk Cousins vs. Niners, who have dropped 19 of past 21 roadies.

At Ravens (3-2, -61/2) over Bears (1-4), 24-13: Ravens’ defense keeps rookie QB Mitch Trubisky in dues-paying mode in his second career start as Bears lose 11th straight road game.

At Texans (2-3, -10) over Browns (0-5), 27-13: Houston defense is injury-ravaged (now without J.J. Watt), but doubt Browns’ tepid offense, resorting to Kevin Hogan, can take advantage.

At Cardinals (2-3, +1) over Buccaneers (2-2), 21-20: Barely, but like home mini-dog with spark from newly acquired Adrian Peterson. Don’t see Cardinals that bad or Bucs that good.

At Jaguars (3-2, -21/2) over Rams (3-2), 24-20: Two young, wildly inconsistent teams should distill to rising young RBs Todd Gurley and rookie Leonard Fournette vs. shaky run defenses.

At Raiders (2-3, off board) over Chargers (1-4), 27-23: Game off-board for Derek Carr, but think he’ll be back as the team leaving Oakland for Vegas wins Vagabond Bowl over team that left San Diego for L.A.

At Broncos (3-1, -111/2) over Giants (0-5), 31-3: Sunday nighter finds strong-D Denver off a bye and demoralized, shrunken Giants decimated, with Odell Beckham the latest casualty.

At Titans (2-3, off board) over Colts (2-3), 23-20: Off-board because Marcus Mariota iffy again. But we know Andrew Luck is still out.

Last week: 6-8 overall, 3-10-1 vs. spread. Season: 39-38, 29-44-4

– By Greg Cote, Miami Herald