September 5, 2013

Syria, emerging economies may shadow summit

The G-20 leaders will look at tumbling currencies in several nations, trade liberalization and more.

Tribune Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - For the first time in several years, the annual G-20 summit won't be dominated by the Eurozone's debt troubles. But that may be little comfort to world leaders gathering this week in St. Petersburg, Russia.

In addition to sharp differences over the conflict in Syria, which is certain to hang over the meetings Thursday and Friday, President Obama and other heads of the so-called Group of 20 major economies have a new economic threat on their hands.

After financial fires were contained in the U.S. and then Europe, things now are heating up in the emerging economies.

India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa are among the member nations whose currencies have tumbled as investors have pulled back from emerging markets in recent months.

The catalyst has been the expected cutback in Federal Reserve stimulus, which is marking an impending end not only of the cheap cash and ultra-low interest rates for Americans, but a new era for developing countries that lived high off the hog on the Fed's easy-money policies after the financial crisis.

The capital flow out of emerging markets reflects the shifting global landscape: Growth prospects in the U.S. and other advanced nations have improved while those of up-and-coming economies, including China, have weakened somewhat.

"The emerging markets (are) largely viewing monetary policy in advanced economies as causing problems for them," said Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, "and the advanced economies are basically taking the position that the emerging markets are chronic complainers."

Ever since the G-20 heads united in 2008 in a coordinated effort to fight the financial crisis, this self-appointed steering committee for the global economy has struggled to reach consensus on key matters of economic policy.

For much of the last five years, the summits have been overshadowed by an outbreak of troubles in Greece and other parts of the Euro area and the broader policy question they raised about whether government austerity or spending was the best medicine for their economic ills.

The debate over fiscal policy isn't over, though there appears to be wider agreement that countries have gone too far in pushing austerity programs. And with the Eurozone debt problems having eased -- and the region showing signs of emerging from its recession -- the sense of urgency at the G-20 has lifted.

As this year's host of the G-20, Russia went with a generic theme of "economic growth and job creation."

Analysts said the working sessions -- and expected final communique -- will touch on an even wider range of issues than before, including trade liberalization, sustainable development, financial regulation, tax avoidance and global warming.

The broader menu of topics suggests a return to more normal times as world leaders shift their focus from acute to chronic economic problems, from the short term to medium term.

For example, there's likely to be a push in St. Petersburg for countries to pursue structural economic reforms to foster growth, such as deregulating industries, overhauling immigration or repairing ports, rather than relying on central banks to print money in the hopes of boosting investment and exports.

Yet even as G-20 leaders consider longer-range goals on government spending and debts, they are expected to water down any commitment by avoiding hard numerical targets, such as debt-to-GDP ratios, instead going with a more general agreement that countries will lower their debts, said Domenico Lombardi, a G-20 expert at the Center for International Governance Innovation in Canada.

"Countries are very much immersed in their own domestic issues and are not going to be entirely engaged in the G-20 agenda," he said, noting that many nations are trying to forge bilateral or regional trade and economic deals as opposed to multilateral ones.

 

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