September 10, 2013

Possible winners, losers under Moscow's 11th-hour plan

By Brian Murphy / The Associated Press

(Continued from page 1)



Obama led the calls for military action in partnership with European allies, but also with the knowledge that support was weak at home for another U.S. strike in the Middle East.

The Russian plan provides Washington with something of a dignified retreat. Obama can claim that the threat of American-led attacks had a double effect: Forcing Assad to promise to give up his chemical weapons and admit to the world he possessed such an arsenal. The White House also can say its muscle prompted Russia into quick action to move its plan beyond just words. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Tuesday that his country was working out the details with Syria. Russia would then finalize the plan with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

The diplomatic energy allows Obama to shift his message to Congress. Instead of trying to sell a military strike that has limited public support, he can let the current initiatives move ahead and possibly avoid a political collision course. Sixty-one percent of Americans want Congress to vote against authorization of military strikes in Syria, according to an Associated Press poll. The poll, taken Sept. 6-8, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Since the Russian proposal emerged earlier this week, Obama has been in near constant contact with French President Francois Hollande and British Prime Minister David Cameron, who also would be handed the equivalent of a political escape clause after being deeply embarrassed last month when parliament rejected his call to back the possible military strikes.



On its surface, the deal was aimed at providing protection for the opposition by preventing chemical attacks against them. But rebel factions are left potentially disappointed that, after more than two years, the West would not commit to even limited military strikes against Assad. The main opposition group had been hoping the chemical weapons allegations would prove a tipping point to provoke military strikes from abroad that would shift the balance in the war of attrition between rebels and Assad's forces. The Syrian National Coalition has dismissed the Assad government's turnaround as a maneuver to escape punishment for a crime against humanity.

The Russian plan will likely force the rebels to increasingly look to key backers in the Western-backed Persian Gulf states, led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as their most reliable and predictable backers. Delaying or calling off potential military strikes is also likely to be met with disapproval by Washington's Arab allies in the Gulf, which have been funneling money and arms shipments to the rebels.



Though Israel was among those most supportive of a military strike on Syria — and some Israeli politicians have already voiced skepticism about the effectiveness of Russia's proposal — Israel appeared generally pleased with the emerging deal.

The government hasn't commented publicly, but officials speaking anonymously to Israeli media said Syria's agreement to give up its chemical weapons is a direct result of the American threat and sends a strong message to Iran — that only a credible military option can truly deter. Israel hopes that just as Syria folded when faced with military might, so will Iran and ultimately abandon its nuclear program.

David Shain, an expert in international relations who specializes in Iran, wrote Tuesday in the Maariv daily that for Israel the main upside is that Assad's chemical weapons will no longer be able to threaten it. "The only ones who won't be happy about accepting the Russian proposal are the citizens of Syria," he wrote. "It's clear to everyone that accepting the proposal will mean more of the brutal Syrian civil war."

Israel's Justice Minister Tzipi Livni neither welcomed nor rejected the Russian proposal, but said that the threat of force should remain on the table no matter what becomes of Syria's weapons arsenal.

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