Poll finds both primary races are 'wide open'
Elizabeth Mitchell and Les Otten appear to be leading, but there's a big pool of undecideds.
By Matt Wickenheiser mwickenheiser@mainetoday.com
Staff Writer
Results of one of the only independent polls on Maine's gubernatorial primaries showed a "wide-open" field leading up to next Tuesday's elections.
Related headlines
MORE ONLINE
Pan Atlantic SMS Group's Omnibus Poll, released Tuesday, revealed a big pool of undecided voters, particularly on the Democratic side. Among Democrats, 61.7 percent of those queried said they were undecided, compared with 47 percent of Republicans.
Seven Republican candidates and four Democrats are on the primary ballots.
The poll showed a tight race among the Democrats, with 13.3 percent of those voters saying they planned to vote for or were leaning toward Elizabeth Mitchell, followed by Steven Rowe at 11.7 percent, Rosa Scarcelli at 7 percent and Patrick McGowan at 6.3 percent.
For Republicans, 17 percent planned to vote for or were leaning toward Les Otten, followed by Paul LePage at 10.3 percent, Peter Mills at 8.4 percent, Steve Abbott at 8.3 percent, Bill Beardsley at 3.6 percent, Bruce Poliquin at 3.3 percent and Matt Jacobson at 2 percent.
Pan Atlantic is not connected with any candidate, and the poll was independent. It has a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. It represents a random sample of 600 likely Maine voters, 300 Democrats and 300 Republicans, interviewed by telephone from May 21 to May 29.
That margin of error leaves a potential swing of more than 11 percentage points. The high percentage of undecided voters also increases uncertainty about the races.
"I think it's totally wide open," said Patrick Murphy, president of Pan Atlantic.
Murphy said he has seen more energy in the Republican primary than in the Democratic race.
Poliquin launched an ad several weeks ago that attacked Otten, Murphy noted, stirring up Republican voters. That may have reduced the party's level of undecided voters, though they were still a substantial percentage, Murphy said.
Murphy wondered whether Otten may have peaked. Otten has spent more than $2 million, airing commercials early and often.
"If he hasn't made the sale to all the undecideds at this point, does it really open up for, especially, LePage, Mills and Abbott to possibly take it?" said Murphy. "It's a question one could ask."
Brian Duff, a political scientist at the University of New England, said Otten's standing in the poll reflected his name recognition, to some extent. While Otten has advertised extensively, some controversial issues have arisen around his campaign.
"Even with that margin of error, the fact that Les Otten has got that much higher support than any of the other candidates has got to be a good sign for him," Duff said.
He noted that the polling was done before MaineToday Media announced its endorsements of Abbott and McGowan. Such endorsements can give candidates momentum that wouldn't be captured by the poll, Duff said.
MaineToday Media publishes The Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram, the Kennebec Journal and Morning Sentinel daily newspapers, the weekly Coastal Journal in Bath and their respective websites.
On the Democratic side, University of Maine political scientist Mark Brewer noted that Mitchell's edge "seems to have shrunk a bit from previous numbers."
"It was built on name recognition," he said. "Maybe some other people are becoming well-known."
Murphy said he thinks the races will be won by the candidates who can best get out the vote.
"It's all going to come down to ground game, I think -- unless someone's got something up their sleeve that they're going to launch," Murphy said of the Democratic race.
Rowe has been organizing his campaign for a long time and got into the race early, Murphy noted. Mitchell, the state Senate president, is also a longtime campaigner.
McGowan is aiming to take the 2nd Congressional District strongly, Murphy said, but there appears to be more voter apathy in that district, which may harm McGowan.
Brewer suggested that in the last week before the primaries, candidates must hit the airwaves hard with ads to sway undecided voters. "It's more an air war than a ground war, with this many undecideds," he said.
Duff, however, said there might not be as many undecided voters as the poll suggests.
"People do not like to admit to someone that calls them on the phone that they're not going to vote," he said, so when registered party members are called by pollsters, they may instead say that they're undecided.
Staff Writer Matt Wickenheiser can be contacted at 791-6316 or at: mwickenheiser@pressherald.com
Were you interviewed for this story? If so, please fill out our accuracy form
Most...
Copyright ©2010 MaineToday Media, Inc.
29 COMMENTS
Chris said...
Since so many voters seem to be undecided, NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg has had more success in the business world than all of our candidates for Governor combined. Yet in 2007 Bloomberg said that "quality of life is the most fundamental variable that governments have the ability to control - and it is a crucial element of economic success." Under quality of life his office was focused on investing in parks, the arts and cultural institutions but “at the same time, we've been working to find solutions to basic societal problems, and - above all crime and poverty.” He said that “wherever you live, the only question you should ask if you want low crime is whether your government and you are willing to take the medicine and pay the tariff.” Cutting crime he said is so essential “because the cost of failure will be felt not only in the streets, but in the economy.” Link: http://www.nyc.gov/html/om/html/2007b/pr348-07.html
June 2, 2010 at 5:17 AM Report abuse
CAP5 said...
Isn't it time to stick to our beliefs and our own public rhetoric and vote for someone other than a career politician. Rosa Scarcelli is a businesswoman with a vision and lots of energy. Lets get out the vote and send a message that we want to steer a new course with a new leader. Vote for Rosa
June 2, 2010 at 6:09 AM Report abuse
Biddy said...
Scarcelli's business background, practices, and connections, will hurt her deeply in the political world. Steve Abbott appears to be a legitimate candidate who can work with both parties and has vast experience in working with constituents and the political world. Cutler, the independent, has vast experience at the state, federal, and international levels. He could do a world of good for this state.
June 2, 2010 at 6:25 AM Report abuse
Govt2Big said...
This is indeed a tight race with several good candidates for Governor. However, Paul LePage has illustrated his strong willingness to address the major problems for Maine within his “Positions” page at http://www.lepage2010.com/positions.php). Our State has major fiscal issues and we need to make some tough changes within Maine State Government. With that said, our next leader will need a very strong backbone and Paul LePage has proven he has just that and more. Although nobody's perfect, Paul LePage has the experience and skills that we need for our next Governor. ** LePage for Governor **
June 2, 2010 at 6:32 AM Report abuse
AnnieSays said...
Paul LePage is getting my vote. He has done a great job as Mayor of Waterville. He understands what a budget is and the importance of it being balanced. He will take a hard look and resolve some hard issues the state of battling. I'm very impressed with what he has to offer. We need a Governor with a backbone and that is what Paul LePage has to offer.
June 2, 2010 at 6:41 AM Report abuse
Biddy said...
In fairness I watched a Paul LePage presentation on local access television. He came across as an ideological ranter with little idea how to work with different viewpoints or ideas. A "My way or the highway" kind of guy. LePage, or any other Conservative will not have a majority in the House or Senate to work with. The legislature will likely be at best a Centrist-Liberal group as it is now. So any conservative needs to have superb negotiating skills and a willingness to bend some. Or we will have 4 years of stalemate. Biddeford, my home town, once had a mayor similar to LePage. We had 4 years of bickering, lawsuits, back room deals and taxes and the budget still went up. Eventually he left office and it took years to repair the damage his methods caused.
June 2, 2010 at 6:51 AM Report abuse
Dee said...
It looks like the get out the vote is going to be even more important this year.
June 2, 2010 at 7:00 AM Report abuse
eWFyZGJpcmQ%3D said...
the two worse ones are in the lead , everything else is going to hell too , what can you exspect ???
June 2, 2010 at 7:29 AM Report abuse
jake007 said...
Biddy...were's mayor"Jerry" Plante when you need him. Now there was a leader with "vision" and a plan to make it work!!!
June 2, 2010 at 7:45 AM Report abuse
RotundaBoy said...
This poll is something! Don't be shocked if the Republicans finish in REVERSE ORDER!!!
June 2, 2010 at 7:49 AM Report abuse
Biddy said...
Thanks for that blast from the past Jake. I remember Plante's "Baseball, Beach, and Bach" slogan.
June 2, 2010 at 7:50 AM Report abuse
harry said...
Looks like it's Otten's to lose; he's good at that. Will Libby Mitchell make up her gender gap with enough votes in the First District? Or, should Dems. nominate Rowe?
June 2, 2010 at 8:17 AM Report abuse
MainenCrisis said...
I'll vote for anyone who isnt a democrat. We are decades past needing a change in Maine.
June 2, 2010 at 8:17 AM Report abuse
ProConserv said...
Pan Atlantic is not connected with any candidate....HAHAHA...LOL! Their in bed with the democRATS!
June 2, 2010 at 8:41 AM Report abuse
Aldin said...
There are so many undecided 'cause they're all waiting for ProConserv to run for Gov!
June 2, 2010 at 10:15 AM Report abuse
common_cents said...
Was ROWE photoshopped into that commercial? He's about as inspiring as a dead fish. No wonder he's last! Libby and Rosa will be tied for first; McGowan gets the drunken Irish Politician vote---I know it's a stereotype, but this guy fills it out nicely. I wonder how many dems will unenroll and re-enroll as R's to vote in a far more interesting primary will a wide variety of choices? Bottom line....INDEPENDENTS RULE!
June 2, 2010 at 10:18 AM Report abuse
Sam said...
There are more unenrolled voters in Maine than either Democrats or Republicans. Unenrolled voters are allowed to switch their enrollment and vote in either primary up to and including on the day of the primary. Since the Republican winner could have as few as 15% of the votes cast and still win, unenrolled voters could have an enormous impact. I will be enrolling as an R and voting for Mills because I think he's the only one who can be Mitchell (the absolute WORST person to be governor out of all of them).
June 2, 2010 at 10:46 AM Report abuse
Sam said...
I believe that Maine laws says that when someone changes their party enrollment they are "ineligible to vote at a ... primary election for 15 days". So unless they switched by around May 26th, no Democrats will be re-enrolling as Republicans for this primary. Unenrolled voters (those who are registered voters but are not enrolled in any party or Mainers over 18 who have not registered to vote) have the right to register for either party and vote anytime including on election day.
June 2, 2010 at 10:57 AM Report abuse
Getabigdish said...
i wouldn't be betting the farm on this poll! I know someone who has been called for their last 3 surveys. if the company's calling the same people each, how can it be a scientific survye? Isn't it supposed to be done randomly? seems a little fishy 2 me.
June 2, 2010 at 11:52 AM Report abuse
ModerateOne said...
In last night's debate LePage appeared to be confused and very slow on his feet. He also had some facts very wrong. His talk about his "adopted" foreign son was confusing. He claimed that he was adopted, yet couldn't get a green card. I wonder if LePage knows what a legal adoption really is. There were some good performances last evening. But, with seven people sharing an hour, we really didn't have anything too in depth.
June 2, 2010 at 12:29 PM Report abuse
henryelm said...
what if they had an election and no one showed up?
June 2, 2010 at 2:12 PM Report abuse
henryelm said...
Gee and Le Page websites says he'll eliminate all sales tax exemptions, I wonder how that will go over with the yesie people.
June 2, 2010 at 2:27 PM Report abuse
ThistleDew said...
Biddy, I've never lived in Biddeford and never knew your mayor who you think was similar to LePage. I HAVE lived in and around Waterville for many decades and a close observer and fan of Paul Lepage. You may be unaware that Paul was surrounded by an all Dem. city council in a 65% +- Dem. small city. His dealings with the council made the headlines more than once as they sometimes clashed over Liberal / Conservative ideas. Paul kept his politics completely tranparent and went to the voting public for the solution to any stalemate. The results were impressive and his mayorship has been a resounding success. Keep in mind that he was elected three times by the same people. He is a worker who gets results...Proven time and time again in Waterville.
June 2, 2010 at 3:27 PM Report abuse
backwrdstate said...
I'd be happy to do without a Governor for a few years. And about half of the Maine legislature. We are a small State of just over 1 million people. We don't need anywhere near the number of administrators currently at work in our legislature, each one trying to make their mark with some pet project. It is time to pull in the nets a bit and do what is necessary, not what is merely attractive.
June 2, 2010 at 4:50 PM Report abuse
backwrdstate said...
I'd be happy to do without a Governor for a few years. And about half of the Maine legislature. We are a small State of just over 1 million people. We don't need anywhere near the number of administrators currently at work in our legislature, each one trying to make their mark with some pet project. It is time to pull in the nets a bit and do what is necessary, not what is merely attractive.
June 2, 2010 at 4:50 PM Report abuse
HM2 said...
backwrdstate said... You said it perfectly. Thank you.
June 2, 2010 at 7:57 PM Report abuse
steve99 said...
You otten vote for Les! Don't trust him. I don't care for his track record. Pulling a 300,00 /400,000 salary during chapter 11 filings. It's between Mills and LePage. How old is Libby 78! Think we need to be a bit younger.
June 2, 2010 at 8:18 PM Report abuse
spore said...
backwrdstate has it right. The nation as a whole has 2.7 million more representatives in government positions than is needed. Our Republic was designed to sustain 400 million people with 30,000 elected officials and have a consistent 50% turn-over rate each election cycle. We have 3,000,000 elected officials on government payroll for 304 million people and we only turn-over around 11% each election cycle. They made it a career and we let them. I'm voting for Paul LePage. BTW: Mills is a Liberal Democrat running on a GOP ticket. Progressives support Mills which tells me something STINKS. I'm getting off of the coin-operated boat, they can shove it. Go LePage!
June 2, 2010 at 10:48 PM Report abuse
Kellog said...
Hard to believe an educated person at the PPH decided this poll should be printed in their newspaper. Only 300 people were polled. Almost half of them picked no one. That means Otten "won" the poll by having roughly 27 people pick him. Huh? Seriously? This reminds me of the "sound" decision making that goes on in Augusta. We need a fresh face, mind and energy in Augusta. We need a fiscally conservative, independent minded, military veteran, Republican that can win in the Fall. Matt Jacobson is just the man for the job.
June 2, 2010 at 10:49 PM Report abuse