Governor's Race: Impact of vote, size of field leave many undecided
Preparing for Tuesday's primary, Mainers believe there's a lot riding on their choice for governor.
By Matt Wickenheiser mwickenheiser@mainetoday.com
Staff Writer
PORTLAND - Bill Roche is a registered Democrat and plans on voting in the primary Tuesday.
The plethora of campaign signs lining Franklin Arterial in Portland is evidence of the many candidates running for Maine governor. Such a large field is one reason that many voters are still undecided.
Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Staff Photographer
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Exactly who will get his vote is a work in progress.
"The good news is I think there are four pretty good people running," said Roche.
And he's leaning toward two of the four candidates: either Elizabeth Mitchell or Steven Rowe. He's watched televised debates and read about the race and the candidates in the newspaper.
Sitting on Congress Street outside Otto's Pizza, Roche reflected that, normally, he's made up his mind this close to a primary. In this case, he's having difficulty picking between those two candidates. Sometimes, he said, you've got to make a gut decision.
"I'm waiting for my gut," said Roche.
He's not alone.
According to a Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll released last week, 61.7 percent of Democrats queried said they had not yet chosen a candidate, while 47 percent of Republicans who were polled said they were in the same boat.
The poll was a random sample of 600 likely Maine voters, 300 Democrats and 300 Republicans, interviewed by telephone from May 21 to May 29, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Experts saw different reasons for the apparent electorate indecision.
"I think that whatever is happening hasn't captured people's minds. None of the candidates have been yelling and screaming and so on. Most of them are pretty reasonable people," said Marvin Druker, a political scientist based at the University of Southern Maine's Lewiston-Auburn campus. "I think they're not capturing people's attention."
No candidate is announcing vastly unconventional plans or making particularly wild claims, such as declaring the state bankrupt, said Druker.
Beyond that, said Druker, most people aren't generally captured by primaries anyhow.
"Those who are most likely to vote are people who do pay attention -- the activists, people who participate, people who read the newspapers, pay attention to the debates," said Druker. "The next level is those who are casually interested. They are probably undecided."
Lee Andrews of Portland said she plans to vote in the Democratic primary, too. She hasn't done enough research on the candidates, she said, but she is leaning toward Rowe. All in all, she said, no one candidate has really enthralled her.
"I feel like there's a lot of candidates," she said. "I don't feel any one campaign is stronger."
That vast field of candidates -- four on the Democratic side, seven for the Republicans -- is why Todd Colpitts of Cape Elizabeth is not surprised that there are so many undecided voters.
"There's a ton of candidates," said Colpitts, during a morning run to the town's Recycling Center "If it was a horse race, it'd be a big pack."
Colpitts, too, is undecided. He's a registered Republican, and his concerns center on high taxes that don't provide much in the way of services. He's looking for the most conservative candidate, he said, and he is leaning toward either Paul LePage or Bill Beardsley.
At this point, he said, his decision is almost down to a coin flip.
Colby College political scientist Sandy Maisel said the broad field is definitely a factor in voter uncertainty and may also affect overall turnout Tuesday.
"There's so many candidates, people got confused and never focused on the election," said Maisel. "I think it matters a huge amount -- most of them won't turn out to vote."
Turnout in primaries isn't traditionally high. In 2002, the last time there was an open governor's race, a total of 152,131 people voted. In 2006, when Gov. John Baldacci was up for re-election, 124,480 Mainers voted in the primaries.
In some cases, undecided voters haven't yet made a choice because they believe there's a lot riding on that choice. That's the case with Alan Viernes of Westbrook.
Viernes owns the Greater Portland School of Jukado, a martial arts school in Westbrook's Dana Warp Mill.
He's an unenrolled voter, but he plans to register with a party and vote Tuesday.
"I want to vote for the best candidate, whether they're Republican (or) Democrat," he said.
As a small-business owner, Viernes is looking for a candidate who will support people like him, he said. He's reading up on the candidates, trying to identify someone who has a clear economic plan.
"I really want to find that right candidate to get us out of this mess," he said. "If we do not pick the right candidate now, it will only put us deeper into the mess we're in."
Staff Writer Matt Wickenheiser can be contacted at 791-6316 or at:
mwickenheiser@pressherald.com
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26 COMMENTS
frankmargel said...
A conservative democrat, where?
June 7, 2010 at 12:17 AM Report abuse
crackhead said...
Libby mitchell
June 7, 2010 at 2:32 AM Report abuse
heyjoe said...
Whatever you do, don't vote for Dizzy Mitchell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Or Rosa Spaghetti!!!!!!!!!
June 7, 2010 at 4:22 AM Report abuse
2B said...
No to Democrats!! No matter what they promise!!
June 7, 2010 at 6:52 AM Report abuse
jake007 said...
"meet the new boss,same as the old boss"
June 7, 2010 at 7:03 AM Report abuse
Sam said...
Mills can beat Mitchell in November, but none of the other Republican candidates are likely to stand any chance against her. In my opinion Libby Mitchell is BY FAR the worst possible person to have as our governor in the coming years. I am normally an unenrolled voter, but enrolled and voted as a Republican (absentee) earlier this week for Peter Mills. If Republcians dumbly go for the "party purity" thing again and nominate a Lepage or Otten then get used to saying "Governor Mitchell" and "my taxes are going up by how much?!"
June 7, 2010 at 7:27 AM Report abuse
caseyjones said...
RosaBailey has dropped $500,000 of her own money, much of it in the very last few days in hopes that nobody notices she is attempting to buy the election. Don't buy the snake oil she is selling out of the back of her Tahoe-she'll be back in the Benz next week.
June 7, 2010 at 7:28 AM Report abuse
MainelyJack said...
If you are waiting on your "gut" to pick a democrat you will just have to decide which one makes you less nausious.
June 7, 2010 at 7:49 AM Report abuse
Acton said...
I am voting for Matt Jacobson in Tuesday’s Republican Primary. I urge you to do the same. Why? He is the best candidate. He has the best chance to win next fall. He is intelligent, independent minded and fiscally conservative. He is a veteran. He is not a career politician, political insider or millionaire. Learn about him at www.jacobsonforgovernor.com. Vote for Matt Jacobson!
June 7, 2010 at 8:02 AM Report abuse
SetterLady said...
LePage can't call the citizens of Maine "couch potatoes" who "need to be taught how to work" in a televised debate and expect to win a general election. I'm sorry, I'm not handing this election to Libby "Pravda" Mitchell. I'm voting for a primary candidate who can attract conservatives and independents, not completely alienate the latter. Matt Jacobson earned my vote during the debate season!
June 7, 2010 at 8:21 AM Report abuse
bhamel said...
Matt Jacoboson is getting my vote as well. He has the whole package that is absolutely needed in the Governor's office to meet the significant challenges that lie ahead. We the voters are the next Governor's employer and as I have gone through the interview process with all the candidates, Matt Jacobson gets the job hands down!!
June 7, 2010 at 8:37 AM Report abuse
MainenCrisis said...
We are desperate for a republican.
June 7, 2010 at 8:41 AM Report abuse
mdb13 said...
If you haven't figured out who you're voting for at this point, then you haven't studied the candidates enough. It's a shame that so many people love to complain about politics, but so few people actually take the time to vote or learn about the issues.
June 7, 2010 at 9:04 AM Report abuse
RotundaBoy said...
Vote MATT JACOBSON. He took all the debates and has the momentum to blast through the clutter and win in November. He's a fresh face. A non-politician at a time when that's exactly what Maine needs. No more same-old, same-old.... go with Jacobson!
June 7, 2010 at 9:18 AM Report abuse
BeachPatriot said...
Mills has no chance in November, when faced with the choice of a Democrat or a Democrat in all but name only, they will choose the honest Democrat. The Republicans detest Mills due to his opposition to Question 1. In the poll cited in the article, Jacobson had 2% support. Matt, Bill Beardsley and Bruce Poliquin had support below the margin of error so they aren't even factors, except as possible spoilers. Abbott has studiously avoided taking a stand on anything. His support probably peaked about 4 weeks ago. There isn't even any buzz about him out in the field. Otten is a Chellie Pingree donor and is experiencing a backlash by those believing he is trying to buy the election. Paul LePage, sucessful three term mayor of Waterville is the candidate with a proven record of cutting taxes and getting both independents and Democrats to support him in an election without compromising his values. He is only the viable candidate that can win in November.
June 7, 2010 at 9:23 AM Report abuse
ProConserv said...
First off...if you vote for any democRAT...YOU NEED YOUR FRIGGIN HEAD EXAMINED! Bruce Poliquin is, in my opinion, the right choice to pull us out of this democRAT created economic hole we are in! VOTE YES ON 1...NO ON BOND ISSUES 2,3,4,& 5! NEVER...EVER...ELECT, TRUST OR BELIEVE A DEMOCRAT, LIBERAL OR PROGRESSIVE!
June 7, 2010 at 9:56 AM Report abuse
JWR said...
frankmargel said... A conservative democrat, where? /// Democrat Patrick McGowan (need I say more) Quite possibly the best thing since slice bread, the late bloomer the unsung hero ------------------------ Peter Mills,,,look out, and don't be fooled. Has no grasp of how and why all we have left to offer is a welfare State..
June 7, 2010 at 10:08 AM Report abuse
crackhead said...
spaghetti,lol
June 7, 2010 at 10:10 AM Report abuse
Kellog said...
Vote for MATT JACOBSON if you want conservatives and independents to win in the fall! He is the best candidate in the Republican field. He is independent minded and conservative. He is focused on the solutions to the challenges that face our state – not complaining about them. He has the vision and leadership needed to inspire change in Augusta. Vote for MATT JACOBSON!
June 7, 2010 at 10:23 AM Report abuse
Abetterplace said...
Mills is a RINO, and might as well be a Democrat. His MERI Rating (Maine Economic Research Institute) a non-partisian institute has graded him (& all our State Legislators) on how he has voted on Maine's economy in the 60%. I cannot vote for someone for Gov. that has a proven record of failing in the economy. I will vote for someone who has the proven record with an excellent resume. He has lowered taxes year after year with an all Democratic Town Council, while not reducing services. He has increased Waterville's credit rating from A- to a A+! This is what Maine desperately needs for this financial crisis it is in: Paul LePage! Don't be afraid to educate yourselves before you vote tomorrow! www.lepage2010.com
June 7, 2010 at 10:24 AM Report abuse
Haiku said...
The next governor needs to repair some of the damage done by Baldacci, our Catholic governor. He or she should be sensitive to the fact that a sane balance of powers needs to return to various sectors, ie, [private] & [public], [church] & [state]. The future governor has an obligation to steer the ship of state off the path of anarchy (ObamaWorld). Does he or she know that state-sponsored discrimination on the basis of religion against lawful religious dissenters should be considered a "hate crime"? Candidate Rowe has no clue about such things. He proved it on the street in his past AG job. Rowe flunks.
June 7, 2010 at 12:09 PM Report abuse
ModerateOne said...
Paul LePage= Chandler Woodcock
June 7, 2010 at 12:09 PM Report abuse
DavyJones said...
If republicans are so interested in a smaller government, then why are there so many wanting to get into public service? Hypocrites!
June 7, 2010 at 12:24 PM Report abuse
crackhead said...
I'll take seven repubs trying to get into Public office over 3,000 refugees from somalia frothing at the mouth to drain our resources for life. hope and change.yes we can. maine needs more diversity
June 7, 2010 at 1:02 PM Report abuse
Somalivasion said...
Collins and Abbott are behind the Beardsley campaign, please don't be fooled. Don't split the conservative between LePage and Beardsley, that's exactly what they intended. LePage for Governor!
June 7, 2010 at 2:41 PM Report abuse
MaineHiker said...
No to Democrats and Republicans and Independents regardless of what they promise. Act on what they show. I'm not impressed by anything I seen yet.
June 7, 2010 at 5:39 PM Report abuse