Judging a young baseball prospect is tricky business, which is why some first-round draft picks never reach the majors, while unknowns become big leaguers.

Everywhere these days, including this space, prospects are ranked.

Several rankings are based on potential, including the venerable Baseball America top-30 rankings of every organization.

Our rankings, and this is our third year, lean more to those players closer to the major leagues, although not completely.

Since we last disclosed our rankings for the Red Sox, in September 2010, 10 prospects were traded. Another seven dropped out.

We humbly present our 2012 list (with previous ranking in parenthesis).

1. Ryan Lavarnway (7), age 24, catcher. Lavarnway will polish his game in Triple-A this year, but he is ready whenever Boston calls. After his promotion from Portland to Pawtucket last season, he batted .295 with 18 home runs in 61 games. In the majors, he batted .231, but with a .302 on-base percentage and two homers in 17 games. He has been labeled as a questionable catcher, but his defense is much improved.

2. Will Middlebrooks (17), 23, third base. Anointed as everyone else’s No. 1 prospect, Middlebrooks is loaded with tools. But he also has only 16 games of Triple-A experience, and his defense could use some smoothing out.

3. Felix Doubront (3), 24, pitcher. Doubront was oft-injured last year, blamed on his poor conditioning. He never got on track. He had a 4.22 ERA in Pawtucket and a 6.10 ERA in 11 games of major league relief. But he has the stuff to be Boston’s No. 5 starter.

4. Ryan Kalish (1), 23, outfield. After breaking out in 2010, 2011 was a wash because of injuries to his shoulder and neck. He will not be ready at the start of 2012 but could emerge as a contributor.

5. Jose Iglesias (4), 21, shortstop. Baseball America dropped him from No. 1 to 12 in its rankings. A .235 average in Pawtucket will do that. But the shortstop job is open in Boston, and Iglesias already has the glove. The hitting may be ready later this year.

6. Alex Wilson (24), 25, pitcher. While he seems suited for the bullpen with his fastball/slider combo, Boston will keep him as a starter for now, like he did in Portland last year (9-4, 3.05). Here’s hoping he’s not rushed like Kyle Weiland was.

7. Anthony Ranaudo (20), 22, pitcher. We listed Ranaudo last year before he threw a professional pitch, and then saw a peak at his potential. He appears ready for Portland in April. Boston by September seems a stretch, but who knows?

8. Alex Hassan (NR), 23, outfield. Hassan is not a “tools” guy and is not high on a lot of lists. But he batted .291 in Portland with a .404 on-base percentage and 13 home runs. He is solid enough in the outfield.

9. Bryce Brentz (NR), 23, outfield. Looking for a right-handed power-hitting outfielder? Brentz hit 30 home runs in Class A (combined Greenville and Salem), batting .306. The question will be how he adjusts to Double-A.

10. Xander Bogaerts (NR), 19, shortstop. Bogaerts is rocketing up the prospects lists (No. 2 on Baseball America). After he hit 16 home runs in 72 games with Greenville, comparisons to Hanley Ramirez were being made. But we’re fearful of making too big a leap until we see a greater sample.

11. Brandon Jacobs (NR), 21, outfield. While Brentz was promoted to Salem, Jacobs stayed in Greenville, batting .303 with 17 home runs. A strong 2012 could see him at Hadlock by the end of summer.

12. Junichi Tazawa (12), 25, pitcher. The clock is ticking on Tazawa, who came back late last year after Tommy John surgery in 2010. He is a smart pitcher who, if his arm responds, can help Boston in the bullpen or maybe as a starter.

13. Ronald Bermudez (NR), 23, outfield. Was under the radar until he jumped from Salem to Pawtucket to fill in, and held his own for 57 games (.261). Moved down to Portland and batted .292 for 19 games.

14. Kolbrin Vitek (NR), 22, third base. Boston’s first-round pick in 2010 is making slow progress, batting .281 in Salem last year with three home runs. Could be ready for a breakout when he comes to Portland.

15. Matt Barnes (NR), 22, pitcher. Like Ranaudo, he was a first-round draft pick, but hasn’t yet made his pro debut. He will bring his big-time fastball to Class A, and Sea Dogs fans can hope to see him in 2013.

16. Josh Fields (NR), 26, pitcher. The other pitcher to come from Seattle in the Erik Bedard deal; a former first-round pick, Fields showcases a live arm (128 strikeouts in 118 innings).

17. Brock Huntzinger (NR), 23, pitcher. Look at his 6.17 ERA in Portland last year, and you may wonder what’s the big deal. But Huntzinger is a strikeout pitcher with a live fastball and improving secondary pitches. Could be a gem in the bullpen.

18. Dan Butler (28), 25, catcher. A “non-prospect” who keeps producing. Broke out in 2010 in Class A (.315 average), then dipped last year (.247, 11 home runs) before a late promotion to Portland.

19. Brandon Workman (NR), 23, pitcher. Second-round draft pick from the University of Texas, with a live fastball, cutter and improving stuff. Struck out 115 in Greenville last year.

20. Blake Swihart (NR), 19, catcher. A first-round pick who signed for a $2.5-million bonus. The Red Sox have high hopes for Swihart. Will he be eased into rookie leagues or challenged right away at Class A?

21. Sean Coyle (NR), 20, second base. A 5-foot-8 tough guy. Can you say Dustin Pedroia? Had .361 on-base percentage in Class A last year.

22. Garin Cecchini (NR), 20, third base. Bonus baby ($1.3 million) who recovered from knee surgery to bat .298 in Lowell.

23. Jose Vinicio (NR), 18, shortstop. A younger and lighter (150 pounds) version of Jose Iglesias. He batted .291 in the Gulf Coast League.

24. Chris Hernandez (NR), 22, pitcher. Not rated highly elsewhere, but he went 10-7 with a 3.18 ERA in his first full pro season, in Salem. And he’s a lefty.

25. Chris Balcom-Miller (30), 22, pitcher. Promoted to Portland and did not overwhelm (3-6, 4.81), but induces ground balls with a sinking fastball.

26. Lars Anderson (11), 24, first base. He does not have a future in Boston, but Anderson is around as insurance and trade bait.

27. Caleb Clay (NR), 23, pitcher. Had a 7.47 ERA as a reliever in Portland, but showed improvement, and then was lights out in the Arizona Fall League (1.26 ERA).

28. Che-Hsuan Lin (26), 23, outfield. Gifted, speedy outfielder who could project as a major league backup as his offense improves (career .257 hitter, with .352 on-base percentage).

29. Jeremy Hazelbaker (29), 24, outfield. Fast runner with a little pop, Hazelbaker has potential. Sox want him in center field, where he is not comfortable.

30. Ryan Westmoreland (31), 21, outfield. Continues his comeback from brain surgery, with everyone in baseball rooting for him.

Traded from previous list: Anthony Rizzo (2), Casey Kelly (5), Josh Reddick (6), Dustin Richardson (10), Yamaico Navarro (13), Robert Coello (14), Reymond Fuentes (18), Bubba Bell (23), Kendall Volz (25), Miles Head (28).

Dropped from last year: Michael Bowden (8), Daniel Nava (9), Luis Exposito (15), Oscar Tejeda (16), Stolmy Pimentel (19), Drake Britton (21), Felix Sanchez (27).

Check out other prospect lists at www.soxprospects.com, www.baseballamerica.com, and www.mlb.com.

Staff writer Kevin Thomas can be reached at 791-6411 or at:

kthomas@pressherald.com

Twitter: ClearTheBases

 

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