The 2014 gubernatorial contest is already receiving considerable attention. Will Gov. Paul LePage run for re-election? Will Eliot Cutler prove a “spoiler”? Can Democrats field a strong candidate?

The recently released Public Policy Polling survey basically affirmed what we already knew: LePage maintains an unyieldingly loyal base and remains well positioned to prevail in a three-way general election contest.

However, it’s worth noting that a near-political eternity stands between now and November 2014 and that Democrat Steve Woods is the only officially declared candidate.

In other words, the contours of this race can and will change.

What’s more, the punditry to date has largely ignored the single most important — and most unpredictable — variable to affect the coming gubernatorial contest: the Legislature.

That may seem counter-intuitive, but make no mistake: what happens this legislative session will largely determine the issues and tone — and potentially even the candidates — that enter the race for the Blaine House.

This session, the governor has both the political opportunity and the time to demonstrate constructive leadership. The open question is whether he has the interest or discipline to do it.

Democrats have bent over backward to extend the governor a hand of comity and collaboration. The politically shrewd maneuver is for the governor to grasp it.

LePage could use these next two years to achieve bipartisan legislative victories that soften his divisive public persona and that cultivate independent voters willing to give the governor credit for his leadership despite any abiding distaste for his approach.

I’m doubtful the governor will adopt such a course, but the political opportunity is nonetheless real and, if pursued, could render Cutler a significantly more manageable threat to his re-election.

More likely is that LePage will continue his brash, street-fighter style. But that approach has its own consequences.

At a minimum, it likely ensures a nasty, razor-thin general election. At worst, it could potentially invite a primary challenge from a moderate Republican intent on protecting the long-term interests and electability of the party.

For majority Democrats, the opportunity is to lead a legislative coalition that pragmatically governs, delivering tangible results that expand opportunity for the middle class and bolster the party’s eventual nominee.

Admittedly, Democrats need a handful of willing Republican partners to succeed, but if they’re effective they could establish a new era of Democratic-led problem solving and creative reforms.

The Democratic gubernatorial nominee could then lay claim to those legislative achievements and campaign on the party’s renewed leadership, vision and results.

The political upside, just as for the governor, is the recruitment and support of independent voters willing to give political and electoral credit to someone — anyone — actually capable of getting things done in Augusta.

If, however, Democrats pursue a decidedly partisan agenda or the session devolves into chaos under their leadership, the Democratic nominee for governor will wear that failure like a millstone around the neck.

Beyond the 2014 gubernatorial contest itself, legislative victories wrought in this session will also sharpen the Democrats’ next generation of potential Blaine House aspirants.

After the established veterans — Baldacci, Michaud and Pingree — the party suffers from a curious generational leadership gap that only abates with the current and recently departed 30-something legislative leaders.

Their shot at the Blaine House is still at least four years hence, but they can begin shaping their legislative legacies and political biographies in earnest right now.

Finally, for minority Republicans, the legislative session will bring the party’s lingering and unresolved identity crisis to a head, forcing its members to embrace a dominant political brand and accept its electoral consequences.

The choice is the obstinacy and bruising polemics of LePage, with their narrow electoral appeal; or a more moderate, expansive brand of Republicanism that elevates civility and principled compromise over absolutism and ideology.

The consequences of that choice will reverberate not only in the 2014 governor’s race but down the ballot in 2014 and beyond.

Make no mistake then, for Republicans and Democrats alike, this legislative session is nothing less than a campaign for the hearts and minds of Maine’s independent voters.

For either to operate otherwise is not only political naivete, it is an admission of their inability to openly challenge the old allegiances and dogmas of their increasingly narrow political bases.

In the end, the party that most successfully uses the session to expand their electoral appeal is the one most likely to bend the dynamics of the coming contest to their advantage.

Michael Cuzzi is a former campaign aide to President Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and former U.S. Rep. Tom Allen. He manages the Portland office for VOX Global, a strategic communications and public affairs firm headquartered in Washington, D.C. He can be reached at:

mjcuzzi@gmail.com

Twitter: @CuzziMJ

 

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