The further south you are today the warmer the weather is as summer-like temperatures and humidity have pushed into extreme southern sections of the state.  While it is still in the 60s in many areas, humidity levels have crept up and the air is ripe for storms this evening and the first part of the overnight hours.

 
Currently, the line of storms is located across eastern New York where there have been several occurrences of severe weather and a tornado watch is in effect right to the New England border of Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut. 
 
There is a severe thunderstorm watch for western areas until 10PM.  Areas in pink on the map below have the greatest threat for severe weather. Elsewhere there are some strong and gusty southerly winds.  Unfortunately, these winds are taking down a bit of the foliage.  With Columbus Day weekend ahead, we don’t want any big storms to strip the leaves off the trees prematurely.
 
The cold front that is causing all the weather today is actually part of the same system that gave the wild amounts of snow to the Dakotas a few days ago.  As the front pushes east, it’s running into all this warm air and storms are firing up along the boundary.
 
 
As the front pushes eastward overnight the showers will end and skies will clear.  Humidity levels will drop rapidly behind the front and the air will return to feeling like October by morning.
 
 
As high pressure builds in from Canada Tuesday sunshine will dominate along with a breeze from the west.  Temperatures will be only in the 60s and with the air very dry it will feel much cooler than today.
 
 
The dry and seasonable conditions continue through Thursday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s to mid-40s a general rule.
 
  
The holiday weekend is bringing a forecast challenge that could impact some of the three days.  The basic issue is a storm will form along the coast of the Carolinas and then slowly begin to move north. 
 
 
The questions I have for the weekend are if there will be rain and if there is what is the timing of it?   Right now it appears there will be two areas of rain to watch.  The first moves north Friday followed by another area later Monday or Tuesday of next week. 
 
 
Between these chances of rain, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures.  My initial thinking is the Friday rain moves north to the mid-Atlantic region, but never makes it this far north.  Then the next area comes closer sometime Monday or Tuesday.  Obviously with the holiday Monday, the timing is critical, more on this as the week progresses.
 
 
If you didn’t read my article on climate change over the weekend you can click here to read more about how I see the latest United Nations IPCC report.
 
 
 

If you want to discuss weather, climate or gardening or even education please find me on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

 
Gardening this week

Deer are an issue for gardeners any time of the year, but as we approach winter, they can become a particular problem.  If you are a hunter, I know how you will say we should take care of the deer, but short of that, there are ways to keep them out of your yard.  Check out this week’s gardening video below.

 

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