Let’s start today’s blog with five bottom lines on this storm. First, the heaviest snow moves into the area around or just after noon.  Lighter snow before this time will amount to 1 to 2 inches.  Second, the snow will be light and mostly fluffy over all areas to start, but become wetter and heavier along the coast this evening.  Third, this isn’t going be an historical storm for anywhere in Maine although it’s the same storm which brought historical snow and ice to the southeastern part of the United States.  Forth, there will not be any coastal flooding from this storm.  Finally, there will be some icing on top of the snow this evening and overnight which can lead to scattered, but not widespread power outages.

The snow will continue to become heavy late this morning  and early this afternoon while at the same time the warmer air continues to flow northward at higher levels of the atmosphere.  This process of overrunning will bring a period of heavy snow to the region with snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour late this morning and afternoon.  

By now most of you know the key to the forecast is the mix/snow line.  My accumulation map is based on some mixing within 5 to 10 miles of the coast.  As this occurs, it will cut amounts somewhat.  Sleet is about three times as dense as snow so it takes 3 inches of snow to make one inch of sleet.  The more sleet and freezing rain mixing into the total accumulation the lower it will be.

The maps below show the predicted radars for the duration of the storm.  Notice the rain/snow line hugging the coastline.  The mix line can oscillate as well as the storm undergoes development.  If you live along the coast, you could see periods of snow, sleet, freezing rain all at various times later this afternoon and evening.

Winds

Winds are going to increase this afternoon along the coastline and continue through the first half of the overnight.  The winds will be strongest along the coast.  Those of you inland won’t see winds gusting to 50 miles per hour, but if you live along the water you will experience high winds for many hours later this afternoon and evening.  The winds die down somewhat after midnight.

Power issues

There are two reasons you could lose power.  Along the coastline the high winds could create a power outage.  Also, along the coastal plain, icing could contribute to power outages especially in exposed areas where there is more wind.  Inland areas will see a lighter fluffier snow and less wind so I don’t expect power issues.

Overnight lull

There won’t be much going on overnight until after midnight.  During the 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. timeframe some light mixed snow and sleet or freezing drizzle can fall.  Then, as colder air works back into the area, backlash snow will move eastward.  This last batch of precipitation from the storm could add a few inches to the snow totals west of the coastal plain and a coating to an inch even in Portland.

Friday and Saturday

Sunshine returns later tomorrow with a blustery breeze and chilly temperatures in the 30s.  Another big ocean storm will brush by (it better not move west) and bring some clouds and flurries or a period of light snow Saturday.  This will not be more than a coating to an inch or two.  I will have more on this part of the forecast as warranted.

Sunday

The final day of the weekend is bright and sunny with highs only in the 20s.  It will be a good day to enjoy the new snow.  Skiing is going to be spectacular.

Next week.

There are still many indications of milder air later next week.  It also appears we could see more rain or snow Tuesday or Wednesday.   I don’t have high confidence in the long-range forecast right now as the atmosphere will be in transition.  I’ll update during this weekend.

 

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