I was having a discussion about the winter with a fellow meteorologist last evening about the winter and the perception of how cold and snowy it’s been here in New England.  You might be thinking, wait a second, perception, I know it’s been cold, and you would be correct.   For many in New England this has been the coldest winter since the winter of 2002/2003, but it’s not in the top 10 coldest. So if you are in your early 30s, this is the coldest winter since back in your college days, but if you are 70, there were several other winters that were colder. One statistic to look at is below zero days in Portland.  This year we have had 9, normally we have 6.  It’s likely that statistic will stand as it becomes more and more difficult to drop below zero in March.

Across other parts of the country this will turn out as one of the top 5 or 10 coldest and snowiest winters on record.  

Back to the cold and snow here in New England.  I think there are multiple reasons the winter seems worse than the averages tell us.  First, the numbers include the few warm spells we have seen since December.  While those thaws didn’t last very long, they did add enough to the averages to bring them up.  If you remove the warm-spells from the average, the cold becomes more notable.  Second, for other parts of the country this is a blockbuster winter.  This has led the national media to begin their newscasts with weather so many nights; it starts to become part of our collective psyche.  At some point if you’re told how cold and snowy it is, it becomes cold and snowy. 

I fully acknowledge this is a significant winter, but it’s not to the same degree across the entire United States.  The upper Midwest has endured the brunt of the cold this season with some areas remaining below freezing almost every moment since December began.

Another reason this winter has been so difficult for us is two winters ago was the mildest and least snowy winter most of you have every experienced.  Temperatures in February and March 2012 reached spring-like readings multiple times. There was only one day in February 2012 where the temperature stayed under the freezing mark and that day stayed in the 20s. Readings reached 70F or higher 5 times throughout March 2012 and even hit 82 on one day.  This February you can count 15 days so far under freezing and that number will climb to 16 by tomorrow night. March is going to start cold and I don’t see any 50s in sight let alone 60F or 70F.

Last winter was snowy in February and the first half of March, but winter arrived late and left relatively early.    Of the past three winters, this is by far the most difficult.  Unless you’re really into weather, after 3 years, the season’s sort of blend into one another anyway.

Past Winters

Many winters back in the 1960 and 1970s were colder.  Interestingly, the Pacific Ocean is entered a cooler phase similar to back then a few years ago.  This could be a contributing factor to our cold winter.

When we have a cold winter like this one, which is less common than it used to be, it really stands out.  Yearly snowfall continues consistently inconsistent with the average snowfall in greater Portland remaining around 70 inches per season.  The large fluctuation in seasonal snowfall lends itself to the idea winters are either easy or horrible.  Last winter we broke the 100 inch mark of total snowfall and this season we’ve had nearly 80 inches of the white stuff.   This is a snowy part of the country.  Southern Maine’s largest city is one of the snowiest cities on average its size. 

There’s a saying about perception being reality.  I, like many of you, believe this is a bad winter.  The averages can tell me what they do and that’s useful, but my back, my wallet and my psyche are all screaming for the winter to be over already.

Upcoming storm.

I have been touting the idea of more snow later Sunday evening and Monday for extreme southern portions of Maine.   If you are traveling to Boston, New York or Philadelphia Monday, you will need to keep up with latest forecasts as the chance of snow is greatest in those areas.    If the cold dry air pushes far enough south later this weekend it will deflect the bulk of the snow to our south.   If that happens, I expect the snow to be more of a nuisance than anything and it could miss us completely. 

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