Winter storm warnings are now posted for the foothills of Maine as well as the mountains.  As you head towards the coast, winter weather advisories are posted for a mixed bag of precipitation on the way.  Along the immediate coast, from about Bath southward, there are not advisories for winter weather as the bulk of the storm will be in the form of rain.  That said, there will be some accumulating snow as the storm ends Thursday and advisories may still be needed along the coast.

 

The track of the storm for tomorrow will hug the coast.  This track pulls warm air at high levels of the atmosphere and also brings warm air into the surface layers here at the ground.  What this means is it will be too warm to snow along the coast, at least for a good chunk of the storm.

Inland areas are a different story with enough cold air for snow to start and end the storm but with a mixed bag of precipitation in the middle.  The precise number of hours of snow before any change to mixed sleet, freezing rain and rain and then the amount of time it snows again as the precipitation changes back to snow early Thursday is critical to snow totals.  From Skowhegan to Bridgton the snow totals can be highly variable as the mixed precipitation oscillates back and forth during the height of the storm.

The mountains will be the winner of the snow totals from this event with over a foot of snow likely in many ski areas and 20 inches of snow not out of the questions for some.

The precipitation begins during the afternoon on Wednesday and continues into Thursday morning.   This is a large and potent system so there is a lot of moisture with it.  The rain will be very heavy along the immediate coastline for a time and with big snow piles and some clogged storm drains you can expect areas of street flooding.  Also, if you are someone who has basement issues when it rains hard, you may want to take any necessary steps to move things in case you do see water in the basement.  I know I have one area of my own basement where, when it rains hard, water comes in so I move things away form that spot.

The snow total map below shows several potential inches of snow even in the Portland areas as the mixed bag changes back to snow before ending Thursday morning.   This is the toughest part of any forecast because a difference of just a few miles with the track of the storm will change snow amounts quickly. 

The bands I have created could shift further later this evening when I update the forecast.  This will be based on any revisions to the track of the storm.  The trend has been for the storm to be a warmer storm, so while not always the case; storms often end up following trends.

There is a lot of very cold air on the western side of the storm.  If the center of the low moves further east, then areas like Portland would see less mixing and a longer period of snow.  This would increase the totals further.

The idea here is travel Wednesday evening and Thursday morning is going to be difficult especially away from the coastline.

I’ll update my thoughts on the storm on Twitter @growingwisdom. Follow @growingwisdom

 

The snow ends during the morning Thursday and then it becomes rapidly colder.  If there is slush and such on your driveway or walkway it’s going to freeze into a solid mess.    The arctic air will be firmly entrenched through Friday, but on Saturday highs will reach into the 40s so you will have an opportunity to move some of the snow.

Skiing should be absolutely stunning this weekend after all the fresh snow and with temperatures not very cold. 

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