As of the mid evening hours a few things have changed.  The rain, as expected, is coming down along the coast.  It’s pushed a bit further inland than expected however.  This means snowfall and sleet totals will be less than expected.  As as result, the winter storm warning was downgraded to a winter weather advisory along the coast up to Rockland.  I suspect areas west of Portland on a line from about Sanford to Sebago to south of August will have a tough time exceeding 4 inches of snow.  When you see the accumulation maps, figure you’ll be on the lower end of the range unless you are north and west of Rumford and Skowhegan. 

Remember, the rain will change to sleet and then snow before ending so driving will become very slick in the morning on those surfaces which are untreated.

BELOW IS THE BLOG FROM EARLIER TODAY

Because it is now March, many of you are done with the snow, but skiers and snowmobile enthusiasts are likely excited about the upcoming storm. The fact that many of us saw temperatures well into the 40s Tuesday makes this storm even more difficult.

We have seen some rain already, but the heaviest precipitation is going to hold off until dark.  Overnight the rain will begin to change to snow and sleet and this is when most of the accumulation will occur.

Tonight’s travel could be nearly impossible over inland areas and the mountains. Along the coastline conditions will be highly variable, fluctuating between heavy sleet, heavy snow or both. Visibility around places like Rumford, Mexico, Fryeburg and Bethel could be near zero at times. If winds increase to over 35 miles per hour, there may be blizzard conditions for a time overnight.

The most challenging part of the forecast is to figure out exactly what for the precipitation will be along the coast and how long the mixed precipitation lasts before a change back to snow early Thursday morning.

The loop below shows the rain and snow through about 3AM Thursday morning.  Notice the rain (green) along the coastline.  This is why amount will be so much lower there.

I’ll update my thoughts on the storm on Twitter @growingwisdom. Follow @growingwisdom

All the information I am reviewing brings a layer of warm air into the coastal plain during this storm. Some models push the warmth further west, which would bring the sleet into places like Bridgton and Skowhegan. Southern York County will have the least amount of snow because the warm air there will be too powerful. However, even these areas could see a plowable storm as the precipitation changes to snow and sleet before ending.

The maps below show what I expect in terms of snowfall. The snow totals include sleet as well.  Those of you who live closer to the shoreline will have the most sleet. The sleet will make the snow quite heavy and if you see it sleeting heavily for a long period of time it’s a good idea to shovel frequently. One inch of sleet is about 300 percent heavier than an inch of a typical dry snowfall.

The storm ends from south to north between 7 a.m. and noon Thursday. The air will remain cold and it will continue to be windy throughout the day.  Wind chill readings will fall below zero and it’s going to be more like a January day.

Friday dawns very cold with some areas below zero once again. Highs will not recover beyond the 20s to low 30s. The weekend appears to be dry and seasonable.

Saturday turns milder with highs back into the 40s and a blend of clouds and sunshine.

Copy the Story Link