April is ending with a feeling more like early March than a few hours before the start of May. 13 days will go into the record books as below the average temperature this month. Three days have been exactly average and the other 14 above the long term averages.  While it’s been cold the past week, when all the data is in this month will pretty much end up right around average.  Amazing how things often balance.

One of the reasons it seems like such a cold month is we are ending on a cold note.  We tend to remember the most recent days and forget the week of warmth which occurred from roughly the 7^th to the 14^th of April.

Today’s high in the lower 40s was 15 degrees below where you might typical find readings at the end of April.  In spring it always seems worse when the cold part of the month occurs at the end of the month, not the beginning.

The next 24 hours will feature some wild shift in the weather with temperatures going up overnight along with a steady rain and embedded downpours.

This rain will continue into the first part of Thursday and is caused by a warm front pushing north.  As this front passes, the rain will taper to showers, temperatures will rise into the upper 50s and there could be a few breaks in the clouds.

I’ll be updating the forecast on Twitter @growingwisdom. Follow @growingwisdom

While the first part of the morning commute will be wet, the trend is going to be for the rain to end and become more showery through the afternoon. 

The image below shows projected radar for noon Thursday. When I review these model images I look at special patterns and trends not at specifics.  It’s highly unlikely the shower you see west of Portland will be there at that time, but it give me an idea most of the heavier rain will be gone with a few lingering showers.

 

Also notice to the southwest the absence of widespread rain.  This indicates a smaller chance of showers in the late afternoon.   While the radar doesn’t have showers there, it doesn’t mean one might not pop up as a cold front runs into the mild air.  The next radar image is for 9PM and shows some shower activity, but very widely scattered.  In other words, most of the rain will be over. 

 

The Friday and weekend weather will be a vast improvement beyond our weather the past several days.  Sunshine will be more prevalent and although you will hear or read about showers in the forecast, the chances are low and the duration of any rain brief.

 

Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees higher than the past few days making it feel much more like early May.  The nice weather will continue into the first half of next week with a blend of clouds and sunshine.  Most days will average in the upper 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the 40s.  I don’t see any conditions which could bring a late frost to the area right now. If you look at the past 75 seasons a frost is still likely in Portland and much of Maine, but there have been nearly 2 dozen years when there isn’t a frost after May 1^st.  I would not chance putting out my tomatoes just yet however. 

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