Jockeying by Maine’s gubernatorial candidates over whether they would participate in debates prompted U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud to reverse his previous stance Tuesday and say he would debate independent Eliot Cutler if Gov. Paul LePage decides not to take part.
The Republican governor reiterated that his participation hinges on whether Democrat Michaud denounces a third-party television ad accusing LePage of categorizing Social Security as welfare.
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Michaud said at a news conference in Portland that he would not denounce the ad, because the claim about LePage is true. He went on to say that he would debate Cutler head-to-head if LePage chooses not to join them.
For all of the maneuvering, independent political experts say debates fire up a candidate’s base, rather than sway undecided voters.
The value of debates depends on whether the questions push candidates beyond their talking points, so voters can assess how they handle themselves, said Andrew Smith, associate professor of practice in political science at the University of New Hampshire.
Without challenging a candidate to move beyond repeated sound bites, debates simply become a NASCAR race, Smith said.
“For the most part, they’re not that exciting and people just go around and around,” Smith said. “What you’re watching for is the crash. You want to see whether someone really cracks up during the debate.”
Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine-Farmington, agreed that gaffes have the most impact. Beyond that, voters get a sense of “command” by seeing candidates being questioned standing side-by-side, he said.
“People are more interested in your general command rather than what you said,” Melcher said.
Public polls show Michaud holding a slight lead, although within the margin of error, over LePage, and Cutler a distant third. With his level of support holding steady at around 38 percent, LePage has acknowledged that his best chance at another four-year term in the Blaine House is for Cutler to rise in the polls. Cutler believes debates will help him do exactly that, and he has repeatedly challenged his opponents to more debates.
The latest flare-up about debates began Monday, when LePage said he wouldn’t debate Michaud because of a television ad that was produced and aired by the Maine Forward political action committee. The ad seizes on a June 25 news release about a report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis that LePage’s office issued while the governor was on a trade mission in China.
The release said income in the five other New England states appeared to grow faster than income in Maine because the report included in its definition of income “personal transfer receipts,” the term for how the government classifies benefits it administers, including Medicaid, Social Security, and tax-breaks and subsidies provided through the Affordable Care Act health exchanges.
“It doesn’t matter what liberals call these payments, it is welfare, pure and simple,” LePage said in the statement.
LePage has accused the Portland Press Herald, which first published the statement, of distorting his words, and he has since gone to great lengths to clarify the statement in interviews, a campaign video, automated calls to voters and direct mailers.
Michaud repeated the attack at his Tuesday news conference, saying the governor’s initial release was the truth and that he attempted to take it back after someone told him Maine was the oldest state in the nation.
LePage campaign spokesman Alex Willette said it was “absolutely absurd” to suggest the governor wasn’t aware of the state’s older population.
Michaud said he would attend the debates already scheduled for next month and that he expected LePage would keep his commitment as well.
The Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce is scheduled to host the first of six gubernatorial debates on Oct. 8 at the Holiday Inn by the Bay in Portland. Chamber CEO Chris Hall said he hasn’t received any formal notice from LePage saying he would not attend.
While Willette said in a written statement that the governor was “still evaluating” his participation, the Michaud campaign released an email from the Mid-Coast Chamber of Commerce saying that the LePage campaign confirmed Tuesday that he would take part in an Oct. 9 debate.
Cutler said at a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Portland that he welcomed a chance to debate Michaud.
“Maine voters are fed up with this silly, stupid game of chicken. They are insulted by it. And I think Mike has finally figured that out,” said Cutler, who has pushed for earlier and more debates. “I’m glad Mike is finally willing to debate me because this election is not just about getting rid of Paul LePage. It’s about who is the best candidate to lead this state forward.”
Some observers believe that if Michaud fares badly in a one-on-one debate with Cutler, that could erode Michaud’s narrow lead over LePage and hand the Republican the Blaine House. But Melcher, the UMaine-Farmington professor, said Michaud’s reversal was the right move.
“I think (Michaud) has to prove he can stand up and prove he can do that,” Melcher said of debating Cutler. “I think (Michaud) goes in with people not expecting much from him.”
Ronald Schmidt Jr, an associate professor of political science at the University of Southern Maine, said research shows that debates mobilize a candidate’s base of support, meaning they could be a deciding factor in a midterm election, when Republicans tend to have a higher turnout.
“That’s big, especially a midterm election that’s as close as our gubernatorial race is right now,” Schmidt said.
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