Even the most pessimistic New England Patriots fans have to admit that the stars seem to be aligning for a seventh Super Bowl appearance for the duo of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

No matter what happens Sunday – even if the Patriots lose in Miami (which they do regularly) and lose the No. 1 seed – New England is the team to beat in the AFC. Possibly the NFL.

Yes, last week I wrote that the Patriots needed to have the No. 1 seed to get to the Super Bowl. But that was before Derek Carr, the talented quarterback of the Oakland Raiders, broke his leg on Christmas Eve, a large lump of coal for Raiders fans, a big-bowed gift for everyone else. Now the Raiders – who can claim the AFC’s No.1 seed with a Patriots loss in Miami and an Oakland win over Denver late Sunday afternoon – will be led by Matt McGloin, who has a 1-5 record in six career starts and has thrown 55 passes in the last three years as Carr’s backup.

Do you think the Patriots would be afraid to go into the Black Hole to play the Raiders now? Nah.

Oakland still has a potent offense with wide receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, and running back Latavius Murray. But McGloin certainly doesn’t scare you the way Carr did. He directed the Raiders to seven fourth-quarter wins this year and threw 28 touchdown passes.

That’s not to say there aren’t teams out there that could threaten the Patriots. Pittsburgh surely could. And probably Kansas City. But I don’t think either of those teams can beat the Patriots, especially in Foxborough.

The Steelers have been a strange team to figure out this year, sometimes looking unbeatable, sometimes stumbling along. Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is capable of putting up huge numbers against any defense, and has stars Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to support him. But the Steelers have never beaten Brady at Gillette Stadium, losing decisively four times to him there.

The Chiefs entered the playoffs last year as a hot pick to go all the way. Then they came into Gillette and lost to the Patriots 27-20, a game that really wasn’t that close. Kansas City could still earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win Sunday and an Oakland loss. But the Chiefs would not get New England at Arrowhead Stadium, where they would have a huge advantage.

Do the Houston Texans, with Tom Savage at quarterback (or even Brock Osweiler), scare you? Even with the NFL’s top defense the answer is no.

Miami? The Dolphins are playing well. They’ve won three straight and are 6-1 at home. But Matt Moore is currently the quarterback – that could change in the playoffs if Ryan Tannehill heals quickly – and all their playoff games will likely be on the road.

The Patriots are better suited to advance through the AFC than they have been in years.

We know about Tom Brady’s brilliance this year. Despite sitting out the first four games because of his suspension, he’s thrown 25 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. That’s one of the more remarkable seasons in NFL history – second only to Nick Foles of Philadelphia in 2013, when he threw for 27 touchdowns with two interceptions.

New England’s defense is playing remarkably well lately, forcing turnovers – four in last week’s rout of the New York Jets – and has held opponents under 20 points 10 times this year.

But there are other reasons the Patriots are the team to beat.

Start with the running game. Unlike last year, when LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis – New England’s top two rushers – were out with injuries, the Patriots have one of the league’s most versatile running games. Blount has rushed for 1,110 yards and a Patriots-record and NFL-best 17 touchdowns. After missing the first nine games while recovering from his knee injury suffered last year, Lewis has provided a huge spark, rushing for 235 yards and catching 15 passes. James White is tied for the NFL lead with five touchdown catches as a running back.

That allows New England’s play-action pass game to thrive. Even without the injured Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola, New England’s passing game ranks fourth in the NFL.

Then there’s the offensive line, which was humiliated in last year’s AFC championship game by the Denver Broncos, allowing Brady to be sacked four times and hit another 17.

That line was thrown together because of almost daily injuries, with 12 starting line combinations used last year.

This year, other than two games, the lineup has been the same: Nate Solder at left tackle, rookie Joe Thuney at left guard, David Andrews at center, Shaq Mason at right guard and Marcus Cannon at right tackle. Solder missed the season opener with a hamstring issue. Cannon missed the Oct. 9 game at Cleveland with a calf injury. Both times Cam Fleming got the start.

The offensive line requires constant communication and trust, and this group has developed into a cohesive component of New England’s offense.

How will the Patriots approach Sunday’s game? Well, last year they sleepwalked through a 20-10 loss in Miami that cost them the No. 1 seed and ultimately a trip to the Super Bowl. This year I think they will go all-in to win and send a message to the rest of the league.

The path to the Lombardi Trophy once again goes through New England.

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