That another government shutdown is imminent is a sign of how dysfunctional Washington’s budgeting process really is. An orderly process has morphed into a game plagued by brinkmanship and out-of-control spending.

This time the biggest issue holding up a deal is a confrontation between President Trump and congressional Democrats over border-security funding.

As Congress barrels toward a Friday spending showdown, the potential of a partial government shutdown is very real. But what would it actually mean?

A shutdown wouldn’t be good, of course, but it’s not as scary as you think. There wouldn’t be lawlessness in the streets. You’d still get your Social Security check.

If Congress and the president are unable to reach an agreement by Friday, then the government will enter into a partial shutdown. Five of 12 annual spending bills became law in September. That includes the military, so there is no threat to national defense.

It also includes the Labor, Health and Human Services, Interior and Veterans Affairs departments. In fact, 75 percent of the discretionary budget has already been funded through September 2019.

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Still, major federal agencies such as the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Homeland Security, State and Transportation would be left without funding. Many of the services they provide, however, would not be interrupted. A total of 420,000 “essential” federal employees would continue to work, including 41,000 police and correctional officers and up to 88 percent of homeland security employees. America’s safety would not be sacrificed.

Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid payments, as well as veterans benefits, would continue uninterrupted. These programs don’t rely on Congress taking action for annual funding to continue, or their appropriations were already passed into law.

Mail service would also continue as scheduled since the postal service has its own revenue stream. National parks would remain open, though with reduced staff.

About 380,000 federal employees would be furloughed for the duration of a shutdown, meaning that they would be neither paid nor expected to work. Agencies that would be most affected include the departments of Commerce and Housing and Urban Development, as well as NASA and the Internal Revenue Service.

Another possible outcome to get around the current funding impasse is for Congress to pursue a continuing resolution to keep the government open. Agencies would operate at their 2018 budget levels for the duration of the continuing resolution. Congress could choose to extend funding for a short period of time or could opt for a full-year continuing resolution.

If Congress passes a short-term continuing resolution, then they would be back in the same mess in just a few short weeks.

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Passing a full-year continuing resolution would put an end to the budget drama for this year. However, it would also leave both sides unsatisfied, with Trump not getting additional border-security money and Democrats unable to enact some of their priorities.

But it would save taxpayers money. If unfunded agencies simply continued to receive money at the 2018 level, it would cut spending by $11 billion. With the national debt soon expected to cross $22 trillion, every penny counts.

Regardless of what happens, one thing is clear: When Congress is constantly budgeting by crisis, it erodes oversight and leads to wasteful spending. Citizens should demand that Congress not only make the budget process better, but also ensure a sustainable budget future.

The cost of failing to do that is much scarier than a government shutdown.

 


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