No. 6 Titans (9-7) at No. 3 Patriots (12-4), 8:15 p.m. Saturday (CBS)

Spread: Patriots by 5

Outlook: The Patriots blew a bye by losing at home last week to the Dolphins. Tom Brady has a sore elbow, his offense is sputtering, and that mighty defense hasn’t looked so mighty lately. Foxborough isn’t the impenetrable fortress it once was, and the reigning Super Bowl champs are nobody’s pick to repeat. Here comes the but. I still like playoff-seasoned Patriots at home over Ryan Tannehill and the happy-to-be-here Titans. Brady will own the red zone and show a middle finger to his critics.

Prediction: Patriots, 24-17

No. 5 Bills (10-6) at No. 4 Texans (10-6), 4:35 p.m. Saturday, (ESPN/ABC)

Spread: Texans by 2 1/2

Outlook: It’s risky going against Deshaun Watson at home, but the Bills have the NFL’s No. 2 scoring defense and a better record on the road (6-2) than the Texans do at home. And overrated Houston is the only playoff team that allowed more points than it scored this season. Buffalo should run on Houston’s 25th-ranked ground defense, even though J.J. Watt might return in limited role. And, while the Bills don’t rely on Jason Allen’s arm, he confronts a Texans pass D ranked 29th. The Bills have been underestimated all season. It’s a good time to stop that.

Prediction: Bills, 19-17

Last week: 10-6 overall, 7-8-1 vs. spread Overall: 169-86-1, 129-120-5

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