I am heartened by governors who have made the courageous and responsible decision to prioritize human life above the bottom line, and by the overwhelming majority who have demonstrated support by their compliance to public health directives.
Still, we are hurting, or are very worried, and that is real. Some, including teachers, are severely stressed by trying to adjust to working from home while dealing with the unending needs of their own children.
Others feel helpless as the sweat that they have invested in their small business, and the family’s financial welfare, is all put at risk. But whether the nature of the worry is at either extreme, worrying about the stock portfolio on one end or whether it is about having enough food to properly feed the kids on the other, the anxiety is a predictable byproduct of our coronavirus response.
As some Americans exercise their first amendment rights calling for reopening, I ask for consideration of consequences.
As the media covers organized demonstrations to reopen, it appears that an attitude is evolving that increased casualties that would result would be acceptable collateral damage. Because this pandemic stalker seems to prefer killing older people, dismissing the consequences of COVID-19 in a rush to reopen is, to me, an expression of ageism.
I think facts are being overlooked.
First, all ages should respect the danger of COVID-19. Numbers from both Maine and Massachusetts showed that, when broken into 20-year segments, the highest number of cases that tested positive for COVID-19 was the 40s and 50s age group. And Massachusetts had more cases from the 19-and-younger group than Maine had total cases.
The national CDC website examined case data through mid-March and reported 40 percent of hospitalizations were of patients aged 20 to 54. As of April 22, the number of positive cases for Americans aged 64 years and under was 76 percent of total cases. COVID-19 is not just a problem for older folks.
Second, the disease is spreading rapidly.
Two months ago the number of people in the U.S. who had tested positive for Coronavirus was 15. One month ago the number passed 50,000, having increased 10,000 from the previous day. As I write this, according to Johns Hopkins, 886,213 Americans have contracted COVID-19. And this could be just the middle of the first wave.
Third, our species is vulnerable to this biological invader. Yes, our medical workers are amazing. But our healthcare response appears to be limited to hydration, nutrition and administering oxygen to prolong life until a patient’s immune system beats the disease and saves the patient or fails, either by attacking healthy cells or succumbing to virus replication, either one killing the patient.
The efforts in hospitals to keep people alive is heroic; doctors and nurses’ knowledge, care and compassion saves lives. Keeping the system at maximum efficiency is why we want to flatten the curve.
But unlike influenza, for which we have medicine, shots, and a degree of herd immunity from at least some exposure over time, this is a new, deadly virus for which, as yet, we have no proven specialized treatment, no anti-viral serum, and no vaccine. Influenza, in various strains, still kills tens of thousands of Americans each year; this new coronavirus appears more contagious and, without a vaccine, more deadly. The Gates Foundation is funding work on several vaccines, which they promise for late 2021.
Older folks are more vulnerable to disease even if healthy. The function decreases of T lymphocytes, or T-cells, and macrophages are slower to work to overcome antigens. Aging provides fewer white blood cells capable of combating new antigens. And, in addition to all of this, the immune system becomes less tolerant of the body’s own cells, which can cause an auto-immune response. So the wisdom that comes with age has a price.
Dr. Shah has educated us, but Maine numbers are merely a snapshot. Comparing recoveries vs. deaths, it appears, as of April 26, that the mortality rate once a person tested positive would be 8.6 percent. Once positive, a Mainer had a one in 11 chance of dying, and that’s alarming. If we look at cases 10 days ago to deaths today, Maine’s mortality rate is 6.3 percent, one in 16, which is still alarming. Nationwide, the U.S. rate, comparing cases known 10 days ago to deaths today, the rate is 8.2 percent, or one in 12.
It is likely that the number who have or have had the virus is vastly larger, which would depress these mortality numbers. But without social distancing, this is a virus that will find new hosts, and Americans today find themselves in the place of Native Americans in 1492. The difference for us today depends on how we choose to behave and the success of our research community.
Thankfully, due to the action of the governor and compliance by Mainers, Maine’s COVID-19 mortality per 100,000 is, for the moment, less than 4 compared to 16 for the United States as a whole. As of April 25, sadly, the rate is 34 for Massachusetts and 79 for New York. COVID-19 Mortality per 100,000 in the UK is 29, Belgium 58, Italy 43, Spain 48, and Germany less than 7, all according to Johns Hopkins data. Maine’s better situation is because of good leadership, cooperating Mainers, and, to date, limited exposure. But all of these numbers were zero just weeks ago, and will change in one direction: upward.
The United States has twice as many deaths than any other nation, and more in seven weeks than all the American combat deaths in Vietnam over 10 years. In June, 1969, Life magazine touched the hearts of Americans when they published the individual faces of 200 soldiers in an article titled, “One Week’s Dead.” As I write this on April 24, the number of Americans who died of COVID-19 yesterday was reportedly 1,995.
I have always believed a public servant must respect his/her audience with truth, even if difficult to hear. The threat of this invisible attacker is real, as 36,000 more Americans found out yesterday. Everyone should fear for the health of their organs if they contract this disease. Death to this pandemic is a risk for all, but two groups, healthcare workers and folks of advanced age, are in the cross hairs of a high-powered weapon. And Maine, like Italy, has a large population of older citizens.
Some are merely inconvenienced, some are victimized by anxiety, and some are traumatized by our six-week experience. As we become bored, anxious, or even angry for abandonment of what was normal.
As we go forward, let us make reasoned decisions. For all of us, regardless of age, may our own actions, and those of our state, reflect careful consideration of consequences. These are life and death decisions.
Christopher Babbidge is state representative for District 8. He is a former teacher and lives in Kennebunk. He can be reached at babbidge@roadrunner.com.
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