Patriots (6-7) at Dolphins (8-5), 1 p.m., Sunday (CBS)
Spread: Dolphins by 1
Outlook: It’s the rested Patriots vs. the banged-up Dolphins. Miami rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will likely be without injured TE Mike Gesicki and WR DeVante Parker (hamstring) and LB Kyle Van Noy might also be missing. With Miami’s big-play defense able to disrupt Cam Newton, anything is possible. But Bill Belichick against a rookie QB, with extra time to prepare, remains too good to pass up.
Prediction: Patriots, 23-19
GAME OF THE WEEK
Chiefs (12-1) at Saints (10-3), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Chiefs by 3
Outlook: Kansas City has won eight in row, but the last five have all been by a one-score margin. The Saints had won nine in a row but last week fell to lowly Philadelphia. The Saints’ loss was an aberration, but the Chiefs’ close calls are more of a trend. Sean Payton is on a 9-1 run following a loss and will have his guys stoked at home for their biggest game of the year.
Prediction: Saints, 34-30
UPSET OF THE WEEK
49ers (5-8) at Cowboys (4-9), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Spread: 49ers by 3
Outlook: The injury-wracked Niners are on a 1-5 skid. Dallas has lost seven in a row following a victory, but here’s a dice roll that says it finally happens and makes Jerry’s World a happy place for one’ afternoon.
Prediction: Cowboys, 23-21
OTHER GAMES
• Buccaneers (8-5, -6) over @Falcons (4-9), 30-20: Wildly inconsistent Atlanta is a mystery from week to week but has been a recent nemesis for the Bucs, winning six of the last seven. But best play here is for Tom Brady and his arsenal feasting on a defense that really struggles vs. the pass.
• @Titans (9-4, -11) over Lions (5-8), 34-21: Detroit has nothing in its toolbox to stop Derrick Henry, but Tennessee’s 28 TD passes allowed suggests a hot Matthew Stafford, if he’s healthy enough to play, could have some fun, too. But the Titans are clearly better on both sides of the ball and clinch a playoff spot with a win.
• @Colts (9-4, -7) over Texans (4-9), 28-17: Philip Rivers is iffy (turf toe), but should play with a great matchup against a struggling Texans defense. Houston is banged up on offense, and how much money has been lost waiting for Deshaun Watson to be a miracle worker?
• @Vikings (6-7, -3) over Bears (6-7), 24-20: Winner in this division scrum will be alive in the willd-card hunt thanks to the expanded playoffs. The Bears started 5-1 and the Vikes 1-5. I would ride the disparate trends since, and also the ability of Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook to solve a Bears defense.
• Seahawks (9-4, -5 1/2) over @Washington (6-7), 23-20: Washington has won four in a row on a tailwind of great defense. Seattle rides its big offense and can clinch a playoff ticket with a win. With QB Alex Smith (calf) out for Washington, bet on Russell Wilson – but close.
• @Ravens (8-5, -13) over Jaguars (1-12), 31-16: The Ravens offense seems back on track, and its blitzy D will dominate the Jags. The only question is, after an emotional 47-42 Monday night win at Cleveland, how pumped will Baltimore be on a short week for an awful opponent?
• @Rams (9-4, -17 1/2) over Jets (0-13), 34-3: The Rams can clinch a playoff berth with a win, and seldom has any sporting conclusion seemed more foregone. The Jets are abysmally bad everywhere, LA is hugely better all over the field, and the Rams are rested after playing last Thursday.
• @Cardinals (7-6, -7) over Eagles (4-8-1), 27-23: It’s Kyler Murray vs. Jalen Hurts in a duel of two former Oklahoma quarterbacks. Both teams won last week, the Cardinals ending a three-game slide and Philly to halt four straight losses.
• Browns (9-4, -5) over @Giants (5-8), 20-17: Will the Browns avoid a short-week letdown after such an emotional loss Monday to the Ravens? The Giants are good enough to fashion an upset, but Daniel Jones being out (ankle, hamstring) weakens the likelihood.
• Steelers (11-2, -13) over @Bengals (2-10-1), 30-0: A lousy Monday nighter, except to fans of lopsided games continuing a lopsided division series. After a big loss at Buffalo and with Colts/Browns to close on deck, this is a sandwich game for Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are still chasing the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Last week: 9-7 overall, 5-11 vs. spread
Overall: 132-75-1, 107-99-2
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