GAME OF THE WEEK
Bills (7-5) at Buccaneers (9-3), 4:25 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Spread: Buccaneers by 3 1/2

Outlook: Tom Brady is a very likely 18 completions from breaking Drew Brees’ all-time NFL record of 7,142. Some see this is a potential Super Bowl preview, but the notion flatters Buffalo in its current form. Buffalo failed last week to assert itself in the AFC East. Unless the Bills beat Brady here, let’s please officially retire “Bills” and “Super Bowl” in the same sentence until further notice.

Prediction: Buccaneers, 31-23

UPSET OF THE WEEK
Rams (8-4) at Cardinals (10-2), 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Spread: Cardinals by 2

Outlook: The Cardinals handled the Rams, 37-20, back in Week 4, but Los Angeles didn’t have Odell Beckham Jr. or Von Miller then. Or this much desperation to still win the NFC West. Counting on big defense from the visitors, especially a hectoring of Kyler Murray. Also counting on Matthew Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp again being an unstoppable hookup.

Prediction: Rams, 28-24

OTHER GAMES

Ravens (8-4, +2 1/2) over @Browns (6-6), 23-20: Cleveland is off a bye week that followed its 16-10 loss in Baltimore, but I like the Ravens in the rematch anyway. With two struggling offenses, I trust Lamar Jackson more than I trust Baker Mayfield to snap out of it.

@Titans (8-4, -8 1/2) over Jaguars (2-10), 31-13: Tennessee (and Ryan Tannehill) are not the same without Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, but Titans are off a bye and lucky to have a get-well opponent in the sad Jags, who have lost 14 road games in a row (0-5 this year).

@Chiefs (8-4, -9 1/2) over Raiders (6-6), 30-17: K.C. and Patrick Mahomes quietly have won five in a row while slumping Vegas has lost four of past five. Mahomes torched the Raiders for 406 yards and five TDs in the earlier meeting. And since then, the Chiefs’ defense has surged while LV’s has sagged.

Saints (5-7, -5) over @Jets (3-9), 24-16: Taysom Hill is coming off a four-INT game and N’Awlins reels with an NFL-worst five-game losing streak … but here comes the remedy in NYJ’s league-worst defense. The Jets tempt with points but remain a safer bet to disappoint than to surprise.

Cowboys (8-4, -4) over @Washington (6-6), 27-24: Washington has an attention-getting four wins in a row, and another here would make the NFC East race suddenly very interesting. Dallas has big edge in firepower, but I like the No-Names and sneaky-competent Taylor Heinicke to keep this inside the bet line.

@Panthers (5-7, -2 1/2) over Falcons (5-7), 23-20: I went back and forth on this one. Weighed Matt Ryan being better than Cam Newton without Christian McCaffrey. Weighed Carolina having a better defense and coming off a bye week. Both have lost three of past four so it becomes a lesser-of-two-evils equation.

Seahawks (4-8, -8 1/2) over @Texans (2-10), 27-6: Seattle is 0-4 following a win this year but should get its first winning streak of the season here, with Russell Wilson coming off his best game since returning from injury, and Houston coming off a shutout loss. The Texans expected to try Davis Mills at QB, but the Seahawks’ toughening defense could saddle Houston with another egg.

@Broncos (6-6, -10) over Lions (1-10-1), 24-12: Denver and its quicksand offense last week became the first team in 12 years to have an 11-minute, 20-play drive and not score. Detroit, though wracked by illness running through the team, is coming off its maiden win and has covered the point spread in four straight games.

@Chargers (7-5, -10) over Giants (4-8), 21-13: The Chargers had lost four of six before arising to whip Cincy last week while NYG was laying down in Miami. Now the Giants (1-5 on the road) could be down to third-string QB Jake Fromm in his NFL debut, with Daniel Jones (neck) and Mike Glennon (concussion) both very iffy. Still hunch Giants keep it inside a double-digit betting line.

@Bengals (7-5, +1) over 49ers (6-6), 30-26: Important game, with both teams on wild-card pace in their conference. San Fran is on a 6-0 run in the East time zone and Cincy on 0-3 skid vs. West Coast teams, but like those trends to end.

@Packers (9-3, -12 1/2) over Bears (4-8), 31-13: Aaron Rodgers is 21-5 all-time in this division series including 10 wins in past 11 meetings. So the Sunday night stage gets a bona fide bitter rivalry – just not a very competitive one. Justin Fields returns at QB for Chitown. But is that a good thing?

Bye weeks: Dolphins (6-7), Colts (7-6), Eagles (6-7), Patriots (9-4)

Last week: 11-3 overall; 10-4, .714 vs. spread

Season: 120-73-1 overall; 99-93-2, .516 vs. spread

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