PATRIOTS THIS WEEK
Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Patriots by 3
Outlook: Miami clinches a postseason berth with a win and a loss by the Jets. New England must win to stay alive. Both arrive in bad form. Miami has lost four in a row and will start Teddy Bridgewater at QB, with Tua Tagovailoa enduring another concussion. The Patriots are on a 1-4 skid, including consecutive losses on embarrassing late miscues. No result here would surprise, but for me, the Patriots at home are the safer play.
Prediction: Patriots, 23-17
GAME OF THE WEEK
Bills (12-3) at Bengals (11-4), 8:30 p.m. Monday (ESPN)
Spread: Bills by 1 1/2
Outlook: Buffalo clinches a first-round bye and home field throughout with a win and a loss by the Chiefs. Cincy clinches a division title with a win and a loss by then Ravens. The Bengals have won seven in a row, and the Bills six straight. The difference could be Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow, if Allen (13 picks) can avoid the oopsies.
Prediction: Bills, 30-27
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Packers by 3 1/2
Outlook: Kirk Cousins and Minnesota have been proving doubters wrong all year, and here comes another chance. The betting line is mesmerized by Aaron Rodgers and the three straight wins that have given the Packers playoff hope, but that ends at Lambeau, where the Vikings have been a credible 3-3-1 in the past seven meetings.
Prediction: Vikings, 28-20
OTHER GAMES
@Falcons (5-11, -3 1/2) over Cardinals (4-11), 24-20: It’s the only Week 17 matchup with both teams eliminated from all playoff hope – combined they have lost nine in a row and 13 of 15. Arizona is abysmal on defense and has lost nine straight trips to Atlanta.
@Lions (7-8, -6) over Bears (3-12), 38-24: Anticipate a Lions rebound from last week’s stunning loss to Carolina that left them on the edge of playoff elimination. The Bears have lost eight straight and are 1-6 on the road.
@Chiefs (12-3, -12 1/2) over Broncos (4-11), 34-13: KC is gunning for the No. 1 AFC seed and home field, and is on a 14-0 series roll. Denver is on a 1-10 road skid and just fired rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett after giving up 51 points to a bad Rams offense.
@Giants (8-6-1, -5 1/2) over Colts (4-10-1), 19-16: Despite a 1-4-1 lull in the last six games, the Giants clinch a playoff spot with a win. I see the Colts on the cover in a low-scoring game, though.
@Eagles (13-2, -5 1/2) over Saints (6-9), 26-17: No. 1 seed-chasing Philly clinches the NFC East with a win. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (shoulder) had not been ruled out as we made this pick, but with backup Gardner Minshew, they still have enough talent to handle Saints.
@Buccaneers (7-8, -3) over Panthers (6-9), 24-16: The Bucs clinch a woeful NFC South with a win, but the Panthers can seize the division lead on a tiebreaker if they win. Tom Brady has tossed six picks in the past three games and Carolina is 3-1 since Sam Darnold got the ball, but I like Brady vs. a banged-up Panthers secondary.
@Commanders (7-7-1, -2 1/2) over Browns (6-9), 20-17: Washington clinches a playoff spot with a win, if the Seahawks, Lions and Packers all lose. Healthy-again veteran Carson Wentz replaces Taylor Heinicke at QB, and either is better than Deshaun Watson.
Jaguars (7-8, -4) over @Texans (2-12-1), 23-20: The Texans own a mental edge of having beaten the Jaguars nine times in a row. I like Trevor Lawrence’s hot hand for the Jags, but Houston with the points.
49ers (11-4, -10) over @Raiders (6-9), 27-21: San Francisco is on an eight-game winning streak, is 4-0 behind Brock Purdy and has clinched its division. But I lean on the Raiders with the points.
@Seahawks (7-8, +2) over Jets (7-8), 24-21: In a matchup of teams slumping at the worst possible time, Mike White is back at QB to give the Jets a needed boost, but Geno Smith will be plenty motivated to face his former team. Make it a venue call and a home-dog upset.
@Chargers (9-6, -6 1/2) over Rams (5-10), 23-18: The Chargers have clinched a playoff berth, but the Rams are on the upswing, 2-1 under Baker Mayfield. That’s why the point spread seems fat for what figures as a low-scoring affair.
Steelers (7-8, +2 1/2) over @Ravens (10-5), 17-16: Baltimore is playoff-clinched, is happy where it’s at seeding-wise, and Lamar Jackson will sit again. Pittsburgh must win out and pray to have any playoff shot.
Last week: 11-5 overall, 6-10 vs. spread
Season: 140-98-2, 109-124-7
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