LOS ANGELES â A year after Harry Styles shocked-but-didnât-surprise with his album of the year win over BeyoncĂ©, the stars of the music world will gather with equal parts excitement and dread on Sunday night for the 66th Grammy Awards.
Top nominees include SZA, whoâs up for nine awards; Phoebe Bridgers and Victoria MonĂ©t, both of whom have seven nominations; and Jon Batiste, Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Olivia Rodrigo and Miley Cyrus, with six nods apiece. In a shift from the last two years, the Recording Academy lowered the number of nominees to eight from 10 in the four major categories of album, record and song of the year and best new artist.
Trevor Noah will host Sundayâs show, set to air live at 8 p.m. on CBS from Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles. Among the acts scheduled to perform are SZA, Eilish, Rodrigo, Dua Lipa, Joni Mitchell, Billy Joel, Luke Combs, Burna Boy, Travis Scott and U2.
Here are my predictions for how the night will go down across eight major categories, offered with the caveat that a Grammys ceremony without some major upset â well, thatâs no Grammys at all.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Jon Batiste, âWorld Music Radioâ
Boygenius, âThe Recordâ
Miley Cyrus, âEndless Summer Vacationâ
Lana Del Rey, âDid You Know That Thereâs a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd â
Janelle MonĂĄe, âThe Age of Pleasureâ
Olivia Rodrigo, âGutsâ
Taylor Swift, âMidnightsâ
SZA, âSOSâ
Should win: SZA, âSOSâ
Will win: Taylor Swift, âMidnightsâ
Even a hardcore Swiftie likely would admit that the pop superstar has made more impressive albums than âMidnightsâ (though the offhand way she roasts âsome dickhead guyâ in â QuestionâŠ?â still makes me laugh nearly a year and a half after the LP came out). But between her record-breaking Eras tour, her blockbuster rerecordings of her older work and her much-scrutinized romance with the NFLâs Travis Kelce, Swift was simply too commanding a presence in 2023 for Grammy voters not to feel like she earned the academyâs most prestigious prize. A win for album of the year would be her fourth in the category â more than any artist in Grammy history, including Frank Sinatra, Paul Simon and Stevie Wonder, each of whom has three. Were I a voter, Iâd go for SZAâs â SOS,â a vulnerable and audacious collection of pop-rock-R&B songs that sits precisely at the nexus of commercial success, critical acclaim and cultural impact â the sweet spot, in other words, that the Grammys purport to occupy. The trouble for SZA is that, in more than six decades of trophy-bestowing, the academy has given album of the year to only three Black women: Natalie Cole, Whitney Houston and Lauryn Hill. Discouraging odds, and a discouraging fact.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Jon Batiste, âWorshipâ
Boygenius, âNot Strong Enoughâ
Miley Cyrus, âFlowersâ
Billie Eilish, âWhat Was I Made For?â
Victoria MonĂ©t, âOn My Mamaâ
Olivia Rodrigo, âVampireâ
Taylor Swift, âAnti-Heroâ
SZA, âKill Billâ
Should win: Miley Cyrus, âFlowersâ
Will win: Billie Eilish, âWhat Was I Made For?â
Grammy voters love to give record of the year to a carefully crafted throwback jam a la Lizzoâs âAbout Damn Timeâ (which won last year) or Silk Sonicâs âLeave the Door Openâ (which won in 2022). So MonĂ©t has a shot with the lush retro-soul stylings of âOn My Mama,â as does Cyrus with the disco-revivalist âFlowers.â But what voters really love is to give this prize to Eilish and her brother-slash-producer, Finneas, who took it two years in a row with âBad Guyâ and âEverything I Wantedâ in 2020 and 2021. If the siblings win again with their beautifully bummed-out ballad from âBarbie,â theyâll join Simon and Bruno Mars in the three-peat club.
SONG OF THE YEAR
âA&W,â written by Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey and Sam Dew (performed by Lana Del Rey)
âAnti-Hero,â written by Jack Antonoff and Taylor Swift (performed by Taylor Swift)
âButterfly,â written by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (performed by Jon Batiste)
âDance the Night,â written by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (performed by Dua Lipa)
âFlowers,â written by Miley Cyrus, Gregory Aldae Hein and Michael Pollack (performed by Miley Cyrus)
âKill Bill,â written by Rob Bisel, Carter Lang and SolĂĄna Rowe (performed by SZA)
âVampire,â written by Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo (performed by Olivia Rodrigo)
âWhat Was I Made For?,â written by Billie Eilish OâConnell and Finneas OâConnell (performed by Billie Eilish)
Should win: âVampireâ
Will win: âWhat Was I Made For?â
Though sheâs been nominated more times than any other human (including Burt Bacharach and Paul McCartney), Swift has never won this Grammy â a confounding statistic for the woman widely hailed as the most influential songwriter of her generation. Yet Swiftâs seventh nod for song of the year â a songwriterâs award as compared to record of the year, which goes to performers and producers â seems less than certain to bring her first victory, not least because Eilishâs tune is here too. Like past winners such as Adeleâs âHelloâ and Ed Sheeranâs âThinking Out Loud,â the stripped-down recorded version of âWhat Was I Made For?â showcases a stirring lyric and intricate melody, whereas Swiftâs âAnti-Heroâ relies more on production and groove. All that said, Rodrigoâs âVampireâ gets my nonexistent vote for her A+ rhyme with âbloodsucker.â
BEST NEW ARTIST
Gracie Abrams
Fred Again..
Jelly Roll
Coco Jones
Noah Kahan
Victoria Monét
The War and Treaty
Should win: Ice Spice
Will win: Ice Spice
The most competitive best new artist race in years could be decided by a couple of instances of vote-splitting: R&B voters are likely to spread themselves between MonĂ©t and former Disney child star Coco Jones, while country voters may line up behind rapper-turned-singer Jelly Roll and married duo the War and Treaty. (Fun fact: At 39, a triumphant Jelly Roll would be the oldest solo artist ever to win this prize.) That scenario would leave a lane open for folk-rocker Noah Kahan and rapper Ice Spice â in which case itâs worth noting that a woman has carried the category the last six ceremonies.
BEST RAP ALBUM
Drake and 21 Savage, âHer Lossâ
Killer Mike, âMichaelâ
Metro Boomin, âHeroes & Villainsâ
Nas, âKingâs Disease IIIâ
Travis Scott, âUtopiaâ
Should win: Drake and 21 Savage, âHer Lossâ
Will win: Travis Scott, âUtopiaâ
After withdrawing 2021âs âCertified Lover Boyâ from competition in apparent protest of the Grammysâ iffy history with hip-hop, the genreâs biggest act is back in the hunt this year with his and 21 Savageâs toxic bro-down of a duo album. Might the optics of Drakeâs return to the Grammys stage â and the message that would send to younger rappers unsure whether the Grammys matter â be reason for voters to go his way? Consider that Scott, who arguably looms larger among the kids these days, is already booked to perform on Sundayâs telecast.
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
Kelsea Ballerini, âRolling Up the Welcome Matâ
Brothers Osborne, âBrothers Osborneâ
Zach Bryan, âZach Bryanâ
Tyler Childers, âRustinâ in the Rainâ
Lainey Wilson, âBell Bottom Countryâ
Should win: Lainey Wilson, âBell Bottom Countryâ
Will win: Tyler Childers, âRustinâ in the Rainâ
The most conspicuous presence in this category is the album not nominated: âOne Thing at a Timeâ by Morgan Wallen, who was blanked by the academy entirely for the third consecutive year after he was caught on video drunkenly using the N-word in 2021. (Wallenâs chart-topping âLast Nightâ earned a nod for country song, but that award recognizes songwriters, and Wallen didnât write it.) The snub of âOne Thing at a Timeâ â not just 2023âs biggest country album but the yearâs biggest album of any genre â can be taken as the academyâs disapproval of Wallenâs behavior. More likely, it reflects votersâ long-standing preference for earthier sounds like that of bluegrass-steeped Childers.
BEST ROCK ALBUM
Foo Fighters, âBut Here We Areâ
Greta Van Fleet, âStarcatcherâ
Metallica, â72 Seasonsâ
Paramore, âThis Is Whyâ
Queens of the Stone Age, âIn Times New RomanâŠâ
Should win: Foo Fighters, âBut Here We Areâ
Will win: Foo Fighters, âBut Here We Areâ
With five wins in this category â including for 2021âs so-so âMedicine at Midnightâ â Foo Fighters have taken the rock album Grammy more times than any other act. So figure that Dave Grohl and Co. are a lock with âBut Here We Are,â which has the added advantage of being very good: a mournful yet vital meditation on loss inspired by the recent deaths of the bandâs longtime drummer, Taylor Hawkins, and Grohlâs mother.
BEST SONG WRITTEN FOR VISUAL MEDIA
âBarbie World,â from âBarbie,â written by Naija Gaston, Ephrem Louis Lopez Jr. and Onika Maraj (performed by Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice featuring Aqua)
âDance the Night,â from âBarbie,â written by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (performed by Dua Lipa)
âIâm Just Ken,â from âBarbie,â written by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (performed by Ryan Gosling)
âLift Me Up,â from âBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever,â written by Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Robyn Fenty and Temilade Openiyi (performed by Rihanna)
âWhat Was I Made For?,â from âBarbie,â written by Billie Eilish OâConnell and Finneas OâConnell (performed by Billie Eilish)
Should win: âWhat Was I Made For?â
Will win: âWhat Was I Made For?â
Before âBarbieâsâ domination of this yearâs field, no film had put up four songs for this prize in a single year. (âWaiting to Exhaleâ got closest with three nods in 1997.) Given Eilishâs track record, âWhat Was I Made For?â â a favorite for the Oscarsâ original song prize in March â is almost sure to win this Grammy along with the others it takes on Sunday night.
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