A vocal contingent of passengers on planet Earth has convinced themselves that we are all doomed. Doomers may disagree why — whether it’s capitalism, climate change, population growth, gene editing or AI that will trigger the apocalypse — but they agree that sustainable futures are just fantasies.

On the other side, we have a chorus of techno-optimistic Pollyannas who claim we’re entering an age of endless abundance. So who is right?

While dystopian futures are great science fiction, scientific facts actually support optimism. Imagining worst-case scenarios is human nature; people swap scary stories around campfires that evolve into myths and legends. We have records of written literature grappling with the hope inspired by religion and the despair caused by worldly conditions from 2,400 years ago. The authors resolved this tension by inventing apocalypses that would cleanse the world of evil.

End-of-the-world stories have put money in the pockets of savvy publishers ever since. Modern practitioners of the apocalyptic tradition dismiss solar power, electric vehicles, and other transformative technologies as “sustainable fantasies” that can’t save us in time from irrecoverably depleting Earth’s ability to sustain us. While the ancients invoked divine revelation of truths unknowable by mortal means, modern doomsayers appeal to science, marshaling testable facts to buttress their tales of woe to come.

We can listen to doomsayers’ yarns without alarm if we keep an open mind. Any outlandish scenario can be entertaining: it can be thrilling to imagine the world coming to a catastrophic end. But some anti-sustainability polemics claim to be more than fiction. They purport to predict the real future. Any argument that claims to be based in fact and well-reasoned can be analyzed logically. Are the starting premises correct and sufficient? Do the conclusions actually follow?

It is a scientific fact that we can power our entire economy with solar power. This doesn’t mean it is an incontrovertible truth; exactly the opposite. A scientific “fact” is one that fits our current, tested understanding of the world; however, if it’s wrong, we can disprove it with careful observations and logical reasoning. Our store of scientific facts and our confidence in them is growing as more people participate in scientific conversations. Science advances because we have an effective method to sort misinformation from the truth: incorrect explanations of the universe can’t predict the future.

If we power our entire economy with solar power, then we can stop burning fossil fuels. That fact has become so widely known that it’s boring to repeat. It’s more fun for some to engage in make-believe. What if you could “prove” solar power isn’t the solution everyone believes it is?

Then the tension between what everyone thinks and your surprising “insight” makes your story more interesting and memorable, both to people who fall for it and people who know it’s bunk. Ten years ago, you could find doomer articles that cited the fact that the United States generated approximately 0% of our electricity from solar power as evidence that solar will never be a viable energy source. This year the United States will generate more electricity from solar power than from hydropower.

So now, doomer articles compare the amount of electricity we generate from solar power to the amount we generate from natural gas. In the future, when we generate more electricity from solar than from gas, doomer articles will claim that we can never completely stop burning gas for energy. Then, when we do stop burning gas, anti-sustainable doomers will move on to other topics.

Was it impossible to predict the huge growth in solar over the past decade? Is it impossible to predict the growth for the next decade? Far from it: you can observe a few facts and draw logical conclusions, i.e., use the scientific method. If you’re curious to know the path we’re on to a sustainable future, don’t believe the hype but follow the science. You can still appreciate the artistry that goes into telling a good doomsday story, even if you know it’s just make-believe.

Fred Horch is principal adviser of Sustainable Practice. To receive expert action guides to help your household and organizations become superbly sustainable, visit SustainablePractice.Life and subscribe to “One Step This Week.”

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