DALLAS — Three of the NFL’s best defenses enter the divisional playoffs this weekend in the quest for a Lombardi Trophy.
The other five teams are driven by their quarterbacks.
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I’m old school. I cling to the adage that defense still wins championships. But I’m also a realist. I understand the NFL has evolved into a quarterback game.
So as much as it pains me to say it, bet the arms.
The 1960s was my decade as a football fan. I grew up watching Vince Lombardi and the Green Bay Packers dominate the NFL, winning five league championships including the first two Super Bowls. Green Bay lined up five Hall of Famers on defense and squeezed all daylight out of the rushing and passing lanes.
You won on the football field back then by stopping people. I believed defense was 60 percent of the championship equation in the 1960s.
But as television seized greater control of the sport in the 1970s and 1980s, the spotlight shifted from teams to individuals. Quarterbacks Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach, Ken Stabler, Joe Montana, Dan Marino and John Elway all became darlings of the game.
Defense continued to win championships in the 1970s and 1980s but now you needed a franchise quarterback riding shotgun. You didn’t need a franchise quarterback to reach the Super Bowl _ but you needed one to win once you got there. Championships became a 50-50 proposition between defense and the quarterback position.
Then the Steve Youngs, Brett Favres, Troy Aikmans and Kurt Warners tipped the balance in the other direction in the 1990s. Quarterbacks became the primary reason you won NFL titles in the salary-cap era. By 2000, I was of the belief a franchise quarterback was 75 percent of the championship equation.
But after watching the Indianapolis Colts win a Super Bowl in 2007 and the New Orleans Saints in 2009, I’ve bumped the quarterback position up to 90 percent of the championship equation.
Those Colts had Peyton Manning but were below average everywhere else _ 19thin the NFL in rushing, 21st in defense and 26th in special teams. Manning was enough to deliver the Colts their first title in 36 years.
And Drew Brees was enough to deliver those Saints their first Lombardi Trophy. New Orleans won it all with the worst defense (25th in the NFL) and special teams (29th) of any champion in Super Bowl history.
If you have a quarterback, you have a chance.
That’s why the future is brighter in these playoffs for Denver, Green Bay, New England, New Orleans and the New York Giants than it is for Baltimore, Houston and San Francisco.
The Ravens, Texans and 49ers all built Super Bowl aspirations this season on the strength of their defenses. The Texans finished second in the NFL in defense, the Ravens third and the 49ers fourth. The 49ers allowed the fewest points in the NFC, and the Ravens collected the most sacks in the AFC.
But the Packers, Patriots, Saints and Giants all have quarterbacks who have been past Super Bowl MVPs, and the Broncos have discovered a miracle worker at the position in Tim Tebow.
Tebow has reached cult status in Denver with his knack for fourth-quarter comebacks. He has won nine of his 15 career starts and six of them featured fourth-quarter rallies. He has delivered three overtime victories, including last week’s 29-23 thriller over Pittsburgh and the NFL’s top-ranked defense.
Aaron Rodgers, the Super Bowl MVP in 2011, set an NFL record for passing efficiency this season at 122.5. His Packers are the No. 1 seed in the NFC bracket despite fielding the NFL’s 32nd ranked defense.
Brees, the Super Bowl MVP in 2010, set an NFL record for passing yardage this season with 5,476. His Saints won 13 games this season despite fielding the NFL’s 24th ranked defense.
Tom Brady, the Super Bowl MVP in both 2002 and 2004, became just the fourth quarterback in history to pass for 5,000 yards in a single season in 2011. His Patriots are the No. 1 seed in the AFC bracket despite fielding the NFL’s 31st ranked defense.
Eli Manning, the Super Bowl MVP in 2008, threw for a personal best 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. His Giants won the NFC East despite fielding the NFL’s 27th ranked defense.
The Beatles sang, “All you need is love.” In today’s NFL, all you need is a quarterback.
Bet the arms.
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