ORLANDO, Fla. – On a Sunday morning, within blocks of a half-dozen churches, Lake Eola Park is full of people doing something other than sitting in church. They’re walking dogs, pushing baby strollers, feeding ducks, jogging to the music plugged in their ears and shepherding their children around playground equipment.

Some, including Justin and Lena Welan, would classify themselves as “nones” — the religiously unaffiliated. Justin, 32, grew up Jewish but no longer attends synagogue. Lena, 33, is a nonpracticing Catholic. Both voted for President Barack Obama.

The Welans represent one of the fastest-growing segments of the American population, the biggest component of Democratic voters and a factor in Obama’s re-election. Among the religiously unaffiliated, 70 percent voted for Obama this fall.

“The main reason I voted for Obama was social issues such as women’s health, gay rights and keeping religion separate from government,” said Lena of Belle Isle.

The “nones” are to the Democratic Party what evangelicals are to Republicans.

“Both groups are substantial in size, and they both matter a lot,” said Alan Cooperman, associate director for research at the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life. In 2012, the “nones” were roughly the same size as white evangelicals. Both represent 19 percent of the American population.

Florida reflected the national trends as well, said Ken Wald, a political science professor at the University of Florida. Evangelicals came out strongly for Republican Mitt Romney, while the “nones” voted overwhelmingly for Obama.

“There’s no reason to think Florida differed in any significant way from the national vote in the sense that both those groups are important constituencies,” Wald said.

But the numbers of white, born-again evangelicals have declined from 21 percent in 2007 to the current 19 percent, while the religiously unaffiliated have increased from 15 percent.

“The trends are moving in opposite directions. It’s something the religious leaders should be very concerned about,” said Dan Nejfelt, an editor with Faith and Public Life, a left-leaning faith-based organization.

Not so fast, say experts from the Pew Research Center. Evangelicals turned out for Romney in greater numbers this election than they did for John McCain in 2008 and at the same level — 79 percent — as for George W. Bush in 2004.

But though the evangelicals came out for Romney as they had for Bush, there was none of the enthusiasm of 2004, when conservative Christians turned the election into a moral crusade for social values, said Phillip Lucas, professor of religious studies at Stetson University in DeLand.

That might have made a difference in Florida, where Obama won narrowly in overtime, Lucas said.

“I think a lot of evangelicals in key swing states, including Florida, said, ‘I can’t support either of these guys,’ ” he said.

At the same time, the religiously unaffiliated’s support for Obama dropped from 75 percent in 2008 to 70 percent in 2012. Moreover, the “nones” might represent one in five Americans but only one in eight voters. Despite their growth in numbers, their percentage of the electorate remains where it was in 2008 at 12 percent.

“They are punching well below their weight,” Cooperman said.

But in an election as close in popular vote as the 2012 election, even small shifts in voter turnout can make a difference. When it comes to evangelicals versus the religiously unaffiliated, the only significant difference between 2004 and 2012 is who won, said Greg Smith, a senior researcher at Pew.

“We should keep in mind this was a close, divided electorate. When you have elections that close, small swings here or there among any religious group are quite consequential,” Smith said.

“Both groups are there, and both groups are going to be there for the foreseeable future,” Cooperman said.

 

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