There’s a lot of moisture this evening being pulled up from the tropics into the eastern part of the United States.    The train of showers is mostly stuck in place to our west and that’s where there are flood watches posted.  There are watches from counties in South Carolina to New York.  The rainfall in these areas is most intense and will amount over 2 or 3 inches in places.  Some areas could see quite a bit more in thunderstorms.

Ahead of the rain area a plume of humidity has been pulled north into  New England.   The humidity isn’t really that high, but in comparison to the recent cool and dry air, it is noticeable.   There are showers in the forecast, but the weekend isn’t going to be a washout.

Let’s look at couple of maps which really illustrate the rain situation through Sunday.  The first map shows how much rain will fall through Friday at 8 PM.  This is a total accumulation map of rain from now through tomorrow evening. Notice there is little or no rain accumulation in most of New England, but quite a bit of rain in New York and Pennsylvania as well as parts of Canada. 

You probably noticed how variable the sky condition has been today ranging from nearly complete sunshine to a rather ominous sky. This is due to the fact the mechanisms to build the clouds into showers just aren’t enough today.  However, we do have enough moisture and lift for clouds.

Tomorrow the showers will creep ever so slowly closer while at the same time shrinking in coverage.   Eventually, the rain will reach the coastline.  The most likely opportunity for rain is Friday night after 10PM through Saturday morning.

I’ll be updating the forecast @growingwisdom on Twitter. Follow @growingwisdom

The second map I want to show you is for the period from Friday night through Saturday evening.  This map again predicts total accumulated rainfall during this 24 hour period. Here you can notice the rain has made it to New England, but also note the heaviest remains west of the coastline.  This is just one model, but does indicate a potential outcome.      

Earlier this week I thought much of Saturday would be showery.  Latest indications are for the bulk of the rain to push off the coastline during the morning and early afternoon meaning we very well could salvage the second half of the day and if Sunday remains mostly shower-free, it’s not going to end up being a bad weekend.  Since the sunsets are so late this time of year, if it’s dry from 2PM until it gets dark, that’s 6 hours!   We barely have much more light than that on a day in winter.

This map shows predicted radar for 2PM Saturday.  Notice how the main thrust of the rain is just pushing through Portland, but there isn’t much if any shower activity to the west of the area.    Presently, only morning activities would be affected by rain if this current trend holds.

One the front bringing the rain moves east there will still be some unstable air around the region.  This type of pattern brings a chance of afternoon showers and storms, but doesn’t create a situation with day long rains.  The start of next week will likely see the best and driest weather in the morning with pop-up showers during the afternoon before clearing returns late in the day.  Temperatures will be seasonably cool for Sunday and Monday with highs in the low 60s.

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