Does it seem like it’s been a dry summer to you? According to the latest drought monitor, for parts of southern Maine it has been quite dry.

I write a lot about perspective in my blog entries and my thoughts about how we all perceive the weather so differently. Yesterday, I got a tweet about what a humid summer it’s been and another asking when the heat would end. We’ve seen but a few hot days this summer and some folks already want it over. While this hasn’t been a record cool July, it hasn’t been very warm and the number of days we’ve reached 90 is below average. Typically, in Portland, there would be 2 days of 90 degree weather in July, so far this year, there’s been zero. As recently as the hot summer of 2010 there were 8 such hot days! By contrast, Concord, New Hampshire had 14 that year.

Power Of The Sea Breeze
Inland areas have hit 90 this summer on occasion, but with a cool ocean and winds often coming off the water, it’s nearly impossible for the coast to hit 90 degrees under those conditions.

Past July 30ths
Here’s an interesting look at past July 30ths. If I query all the July 30ths in the database I find only 5 percent of the time it’s reached 90 or higher on this date. Even if I look at only the past 15 years, the number of 90 degree days is still low. The cold Atlantic just doesn’t allow coastal areas to experience the heat of other parts of New England.

This exercise in numbers doesn’t prove a thing, but it is interesting to note your chances for a 90 degree day on today’s date haven’t gone up over the past few decades.

Tropical Downpours
What is very high is the humidity and this is making it feel even warmer than it is. This amount of moisture in the air is going to raise the prospect of heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. Already we see a line of showers and embedded storms pushing east through New Hampshire. I expect this area of showers to impact some of the evening commute, especially over western areas moving into greater Portland and coastal Maine after the evening commute.

While it is humid and there is a cold front, there hasn’t been any severe weather associated with this transition between air masses. Severe weather needs more than just a front and humid air and the other ingredients aren’t present enough.

The rain could be heavy enough to create ponding of water on some roadways and this is what may impact the commute home. I usually pull over if the rain gets too bad, it’s not worth wrecking my car to get home 5 minutes faster.

Drier, But Still Warm
I expect the showers to end during the evening as drier air filters through southern New England. Tomorrow, while it will turn less humid, will still be on the hot side. Temperatures should make it near 90 degrees and without much shade from clouds it will feel quite hot.

While the weekend and first half of next week feature very warm and at times humid summer weather, I still see the pattern changing later next week and beyond to a cooler and less hot one. This doesn’t mean there won’t be any more heat the rest of August, but it does look like we won’t have any extended official heat waves for a while.

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