I have a morning routine when it comes to the computer models. Depending on the time of year, I look at certain long range maps first, and then look at the more immediate forecast. The exception to this rule is if there is a snowstorm, then it’s right to the maps which will help me forecast that scenario.

In the summer, I review the dew point and temperature maps. I dislike extreme heat and humidity and I like knowing when that stuff is arriving or leaving. In the fall, I look at the low temperature maps as I don’t want an early frost or freeze before I am done in the garden and my houseplants are back inside.

Still Dry
Lately, I’ve been looking at the total precipitation maps for the next 10 day period. Each time I look, there isn’t any rain in the forecast or if there is rain predicted it disappears the following day. With the weekend beginning tomorrow, I definitely want it to be nice so I can work outside, in spite of desperately needing rain.

The latest drought monitor map from Thursday the 24th of September continues to show moderate drought conditions across much of southern Maine. The drought has now expanded along the coastline and moved well into the Mid-Coast of the state. Northern Maine continues to see enough rainfall.

September and October can bring some of the longest periods of dry weather we experience all year. In spite of the transition to fall, rain can be scarce.

Sunny Weekend
The map below is from one the climate models and shows no rain through Monday. This means a dry and sunny weekend ahead and this could last into next week.

Comfortably Cool
Temperatures will be on the cool side of average this weekend, but with the September sunshine it won’t feel chilly. If you are headed out apple picking, playing in a soccer game or just walking the beach, I am confident you’ll be commenting on just how stunning the weather is.

I expect high temperatures to the be in low 60s for most areas to start the weekend, with some middle and perhaps upper 60s on Sunday, warmest inland parts of York County.

Long-range forecasts can predict rainfall several weeks into the future. Here we see rainfall predictions into the first few days of October and now parts of New England are forecast to receive some rain. I am not getting my hopes up this map is going to turn out valid. I’ve seen this story before in the past few weeks and it hasn’t rained. We’ll have to wait until later next week to know if the weather turns more unsettled as we start October.

The European model keeps us dry, but does try to move the rain northward during the middle of next week. Until then it’s mostly bright forecast. If the weather is going to be this dry and sunny we might as well enjoy it. Many local orchards are open for picking this weekend and if you want the best variety of apples, peaches and Asian pears, be sure to go early. If you wait until Columbus Day weekend, some fruit trees may already be picked clear.

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