There’s a lot of weather to write about this morning and I have to smile thinking about how difficult it was to do this blog during days and days of sunshine. Just a reminder, manually shut off your irrigation system, you can always flip it back on if it gets dry again.

This morning we have a cold front to the west of Maine slowly making its way to the coastline. It’s the slow pace of this front, in combination with all the humidity in the air, that is the catalyst for the heavy downpours. The morning commute is definitely going to be impacted by all this rain.

It’s been so dry, the biggest flooding issues from the rain will be street flooding and hydroplaning.

After the early afternoon the rain will taper off to just scattered showers. Behind the front cooler and less humid air will filter into the region. I felt like someone glued the sheets to me last night it was so humid in the house, but tonight will be a totally different story. (I just couldn’t resolve putting the air conditioning on.) Temperatures will fall through the 50s and with much lower dew points; it will be great for sleeping.

On your way home this evening, while there could be a few scattered showers, generally it won’t be raining.

Tomorrow is actually going to be a fairly nice day. A blend of clouds and sunshine will allow the ground to dry and temperatures will be seasonably cool. There will be an area of rain to our south over southern New England and some of the clouds will likely thicken in the afternoon here, but I am not expecting more rain.
It continues dry, but with a lot of clouds for Friday and Saturday. I wouldn’t cancel any plans for the weekend. Some showers may impact southern Maine Sunday, more on that tomorrow.

Joaquin
Confidence is much lower than usual among meteorologist on how this storm’s track will evolve. The overall upper level patter which steers storms is undergoing a shift from what we’ve been seeing much of September. When patterns shift like this as they often do, the models have a hard time resolving what will happen with storms. In the winter the models can “create” snowstorms one day and take them away the next.

This morning we once again find tremendous differences in the predicted track of Joaquin. The models do agree this storm will become a category one or two hurricane. The American model and its ensembles (collection of similar models) take Joaquin northward and into the mid-Atlantic region. From there the storm moves north, weakens and heads through Maine.

The European model brings the storm north off the coast, but then turns it out to sea with little or no impact for the United States.
The United Kingdom model is kind of in the middle, but still has less impact to the mainland.

The official track from the hurricane center takes all of these models and others into account. Their one official track has a large cone of uncertainty.

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