Winter temperatures have already arrived in Maine and now it’s time for the snow. Ski areas have been in need of natural snow and they should do the best from this upcoming system. It’s not going to be a crippling snowstorm, just a moderate size one and a nice way to close out 2015.
With the cold air in place we just need the moisture and that will arrive in the wee hours of the morning.
The morning commute is especially hard hit, but the evening one is still going to be impacted by snow and ice. Snow will likely be falling at rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during this time. The accumulation is based on the transition from snow to sleet occurring in the morning, especially along the coast.
The reason for the change to sleet is because warm air will be streaming in at about 10,000 feet. This warm air melts the snow as it falls from the clouds. If the air was warm at the ground it would then rain. However, since the air here at the surface is still cold, the melted snow above us will then refreeze into ice pellets before hitting the ground.
Sleet is about 4 times denser than snow, in other words, an inch of sleet is 4 inches of snow. This is why accumulations are much lower at the coast where sleet will occur much earlier in the storm.
The map below gives expected snowfall totals. This is similar to other maps you might have seen. If the snow lasts longer than expected along the coast then these numbers would need to be increased during the morning Tuesday.
The storm winds down in the evening Tuesday and then it’s a generally dry pattern with a colder finish over the weekend. There might be some light precipitation Wednesday evening in the form of some sleet or rain showers, but New Year’s Eve Day and New Year’s Eve itself are looking quite comfortable for the final hours of December.
Some areas of interior Maine may see their first zero readings early next week and a bit of true arctic air arrives in central and northern Maine. The core of the cold will remain north of southern Maine, but you’ll definitely know it’s January.
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