WASHINGTON -— President Trump’s decision to unilaterally try to build his promised wall at the Mexico border is pulling his party into a tailspin of drama and unease – a move that could help his own 2020 reelection effort even at the expense of fellow Republicans, numerous officials said Friday.

Trump’s bid to circumvent Congress puts Republican lawmakers – including many vulnerable senators up for reelection next cycle – in the position of having to choose between their party’s leader and their self-described opposition to executive overreach.

If they back Trump’s emergency declaration, many lawmakers worry, they will be greenlighting a White House power grab that infringes on Congress’ constitutional power over spending. But if they oppose it, they risk attracting the wrath of Trump’s political base – and perhaps a primary challenge.

It is also unclear whether even the most vocal Republican critics of Trump’s move will actually vote to disapprove of his emergency declaration, and few were willing to address the issue Friday. According to one White House official, administration aides have urged lawmakers to keep their powder dry for now rather than saying how they’d vote publicly.

‘RECIPE FOR DISASTER’

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., – who spent weeks warning against a national emergency only to declare his support for the move this week – issued a noncommittal statement Friday blaming Democrats for the border impasse but offering no opinion on Trump’s formal declaration.

Looming above it all is the possibility of an epic constitutional standoff between the White House and Congress that could be seriously damaging to Republicans.

“It is a recipe for disaster for McConnell and his flock of Senate Republicans up in 2020,” said Dan Eberhart, an oil industry executive and Republican donor who called the predicament a “no-win situation.” “Choose Trump and the emergency declaration and offend moderates, or upset Trump and risk being toppled in a Trump-fueled primary challenge.”

The interparty feud will come to a head in a matter of weeks, as House Democrats gear up to pass a resolution disapproving of Trump’s emergency declaration. Under congressional rules, that resolution would automatically come to the Senate for a vote in a matter of days, forcing Republicans to take a position.

That could pose a problem for senators such as Thom Tillis of North Carolina, John Cornyn of Texas, Martha McSally of Arizona and Tom Cotton of Arkansas – all Republicans up for reelection next year. Cornyn and McSally hail from border states, where their own constituents could see the Trump administration trying to seize property under eminent domain laws to build a border wall. Tillis represents a swing state where he needs both independents and Trump loyalists to win reelection.

Even Cotton, a longtime Pentagon champion from a deep-red state, will have to balance his support for the president and the southern barrier with his desire to keep the military budget intact. Military hawks had begged the administration to spare construction dollars that support troops in any attempt to fund a wall project. Trump ignored them, irritating some of Capitol Hill’s most vocal advocates of defense spending.

“Dollars that are in the Department of Defense are already a national emergency,” said Rep. Michael Turner, a senior Republican member of the House Armed Services Committee who hails from a swing district in Ohio. “Going to our national security, our Department of Defense dollars, and cannibalizing them will harm our military.”

Realizing that they must win over Republican skeptics, the White House is ramping up a lobbying push on Capitol Hill. Administration officials have started reaching out to Republican lawmakers and circulating talking points that defend Trump’s plan. The Office of Management and Budget hosted a call to brief Republican staffers on the funding portion of the plan Friday, an official said.

Administration officials have also encouraged vocal Trump Hill allies such as House Freedom Caucus founder Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to go on TV to sell the plan to voters. On a call with Trump surrogates Friday morning, White House Director of Strategic Communications Mercedes Schlapp and Deputy OMB Director Russ Vought vowed that Trump would “absolutely veto” any resolution of disapproval while predicting that it will “shock” people to see how quickly the administration will build a wall.

Trump campaign officials believe the emergency declaration will bolster the president’s reelection effort. Campaign chairman Brad Parscale has presented the president with internal polling numbers purporting to show the wall is more popular than shown in public polling.

“It was a winning issue in 2016, and it’s going to be among the core issues in 2020,” said Raj Shah, a former White House spokesman who is advising the campaign, later adding: “It’s going to be: ‘Finish the wall. Elect me, or we won’t have a southern border wall.’ The wall, border security and immigration – when he’s talking about it and the subject of conversation migrates to that, it’s a good contrast for us.”

‘AN INCREDIBLY TOUGH VOTE’

Many Senate Republicans and moderate Republican House lawmakers disagree privately, however. During a private meeting in late January, McConnell told Trump that Congress might end up passing a resolution disapproving of an emergency declaration, people with knowledge of their conversation said.

Josh Holmes, a close McConnell confidant who formerly served as his chief of staff, downplayed the political ramifications of the emergency declaration.

“I think the battle lines are pretty well-established and pretty well-drawn-out,” Holmes said. “The political implications of that are entirely partisan and entirely predictable.”

But plenty of other Republican politicos disagree, and lawmakers in swing districts and states know they have a difficult decision to make.

“It’s an incredibly tough vote,” said Rob Collins, former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who argued a positive outcome is still possible for Republicans. “I’d be extremely nervous if I was them, to make sure that we got it right.”

In fact, some House Republicans believe Trump’s obsession with the border actually cost the party more House seats than it otherwise would have lost in the 2018 midterm elections. In a call just before Election Day, then-House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., encouraged Trump to talk more about the economy.


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