NFL Week 13 picks

Patriots (5-6) at Chargers (3-8), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Even

Outlook: Cam Newton was abysmal last week, yet the Patriots still beat Arizona (as I predicted), which underlines that Bill Belichick (post-Tom Brady) is still sort of finding a way. New England has the pass defense to neutralize a strength for the Chargers – Justin Herbert. And the coaching disparities don’t get much wider than Belichick vs. Anthony Lynn, which matters in a rare pick-’em game.

Prediction: Patriots, 19-17

GAME OF THE WEEK

Rams (7-4) at Cardinals (6-5), 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Spread: Rams by 3

Outlook: Arizona has lost two in a row and three of its last four as young QB Kyler Murray has ebbed from wunderkind to mortal. It won’t help him that the Rams expect top CB Jalen Ramsey back from a hip injury. The Rams have won six in a row in the series. Make it seven.

Prediction: Rams, 24-20

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Colts (7-4) at Texans (4-7), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Colts by 3

Outlook: The Colts’ supposedly elite defense got exposed big-time by Tennessee last week, while Houston was winning a second straight and third in the past four. The Texans are rested after playing on Thanksgiving and ready to keep the recent turnaround going.

Prediction: Texans, 30-27

OTHER GAMES

• At Dolphins (7-4, -11 1/2) over Bengals (2-8-1), 26-0: There’s no Joe Burrow vs. Tua Tagovailoa. It’s Brandon Allen vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick. Miami is on a 9-1 roll when favored at home and should keep that streak going.

• Saints (9-2, -2 1/2) over At Falcons (4-7), 23-20: The Falcons are 4-2 since an 0-5 start and crushed the Raiders last week. Stick with the Saints on a 5-1 series run and an 11-1 roll on road … with trepidation.

• At Bears (5-6, -3) over Lions (4-7), 24-16: Sad Bowl matchup of division rivals, Chicago with five straight losses and Detroit on a 1-4 skid, now playing for new interim coach Darrell Bevell. Mitchell Trubisky is back at QB for the Bears, but David Montgomery against the Lions’ sad run stoppage will be a bigger factor.

• At Titans (8-3, -6) over Browns (8-3), 32-21: Derrick Henry vs. Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt spices up a rare duel of run-first offenses. The Browns get Myles Garrett back off the COVID list, but ride the Titans’ big edge on offense.

• At Vikings (5-6, -10 1/2) over Jaguars (1-10), 28-20: A blowout would not surprise, yet I’m hunching the Jags with a double-digit head start.

• Raiders (6-5, -9) over At Jets (0-11), 24-16: I tried to talk myself into a major outright upset pick here. I’ll hedge with a Jets cover against the spread.

• At Seahawks (8-3, -10) over Giants (4-7), 34-13: Russell Wilson-to-DK Metcalf looks unstoppable, and the Giants look to Colt McCoy as he subs for injured Daniel Jones.

• At Packers (8-3, -8 1/2) over Eagles (3-7-1), 27-20: Philly gets TE Zach Ertz back (that’s huge for Carson Wentz) and has a good enough defense to sneak in under the betting line.

• At Chiefs (10-1, -14) over Broncos (4-7), 41-10: Kansas City’s past three wins have been by nine total points, but they are on a 24-3 run in the AFC West. Expect more.

• At Steelers (11-0, -8 1/2) over Washington (4-7), 24-17: Monday’s early game has Washington, having played on Thanksgiving Day, and Pittsburgh having played Wednesday. Washington brings a credible-enough defense to keep it inside the Vegas number.

• At 49ers (5-6, +1) over Bills (8-3), 23-20: Monday night’s late game is in Arizona because Santa Clara County banned contact sports. The Bills have holes on defense that a well-coached 49ers team will exploit.

• At Ravens (6-5, -7) over Cowboys (3-8), 27-16: This game is Tuesday night, but it’s still a short week for the Ravens, who played Wednesday. Four losses in five games have the Ravens on edge, but with QB Lamar Jackson expected to come off the COVID list, the Ravens are too good – and too desperate – to lose again.

Last week: 13-3 overall, 8-8 vs. spread

Season: 114-62-1, .94-81-2