NFL Week 14 picks

GAME OF THE WEEK

Steelers (11-1) at Bills (9-3), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Spread: Bills by 2 1/2

Outlook: As with my picking Browns to beat the Ravens this week (spoiler alert; see below), this pick just feels, well, weird. I am unaccustomed to doubting the Steelers, let alone a Pittsburgh team this good. And I definitely am not used to having much faith in Buffalo. Ben Roethlisberger getting points is tempting. Josh Allen shredded the 49ers Monday night, but will find it much tougher to navigate. Pittsburgh is coming off its first loss, to Washington, but that was off four days’ rest. My head says Bills even as my gut says nah. Better put a period at the end of this sentence before I change my mind.

Prediction: Bills, 28-24

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Broncos (4-8) at Panthers (4-8), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Panthers by 4

Outlook: Denver is coming off its best performance of the year in a 22-16 loss to Kansas City. As for Carolina, COVID hit the Panthers this week, and Teddy Bridgewater will be operating without two of his top three receivers, and RB Christian McCaffrey’s status for Sunday is shaky at best.

Prediction: Broncos, 23-20

OTHER GAMES

• Chiefs (11-1, -7 1/2) over At Dolphins (8-4), 24-20: KC’s last four wins have been by one score, 15 points total. The Dolphins might just be Patrick Mahomes’ toughest test yet, but Mahomes is Mahomes. Miami might not have enough to win, but should stay inside the betting line.

• Texans (4-8, even) over At Bears (5-7), 24-17: The Texans are playing much better and Deshaun Watson will be stoked to whup on the team that picked Mitchell Trubisky over him in the 2017 draft.

• Cowboys (3-9, -3 1/2) over At Bengals (2-9-1), 27-21: Andy Dalton is back in Cincy to face his longtime former team. I like Dallas, especially if Ezekiel Elliott is good to go, although the Bengals with points is a decent play.

• At Giants (5-7, +1 1/2) over Cardinals (6-6), 23-20: Arizona, on 1-4 skid, hasn’t been the same since Kyler Murray’s shoulder injury. New York has won four straight and QB Daniel Jones could return, although Colt McCoy did just pilot that upset of Seattle.

• At Buccaneers (7-5, -6 1/2) over Vikings (6-6), 31-27: Tampa’s defense has fallen off during the past month’s slump, although the Bucs front seven will make it tough for Dalvin Cook. Tom Brady and the Bucs bounce back off a bye, but that’s a lot of points.

• Titans (8-4, -9) over At Jaguars (1-11), 30-23: The Titans only beat the Jags 33-30 in the first meeting, but I can’t find the trigger on an outright stunner. That plus-9 feels right, though.

• At Raiders (7-5, +2 1/2) over Colts (8-4), 27-24: Two teams clawing for playoff spots. Jon Gruden knows Philip Rivers well from all his years with the Chargers, and Indy’s depleted O-line may be down to its third-string left tackle to protect Rivers.

• At Seahawks (8-4, -13 1/2) over Jets (0-12), 27-16: Russell Wilson will not lose two straight to a New York team. But Seattle seems on auto-pilot in a soft stretch of its schedule, so I’ll chance the Jets to keep it close enough.

• Packers (9-3, -9) over At Lions (5-7), 41-23: You know how these Aaron Rodgers-Matthew Stafford shootouts tend to go, but I’d give the Lions a better shot if Kenny Golladay and D’Andre Swift play.

• Saints (10-2, -7) over At Eagles (3-8-1), 28-16: Philly rookie QB Jalen Hurts makes his first start over benched Carson Wentz, while Taysom Hill gets a fourth straight start for Drew Brees. A tough spot for Hurts.

• Falcons (4-8, -2 1/2) over At Chargers (3-9), 27-23: Give us the road fave because Atlanta’s defense has been better lately, and the shine on Justin Herbert’s rookie year has dimmed the past couple of games.

• Washington (5-7, +3) over At 49ers (5-7), 19-17: The Washington No-Names are on a 3-0 run behind Alex Smith, and now face his former team, which has lost four of five and just got pummeled by Buffalo.

• At Browns (9-3, +1) over Ravens (7-5), 24-23: The Ravens have owned the Browns, winning eight of the last 10 overall and 10 of 12 in Cleveland. Out of habit, I hate trusting the Browns, and hate doubting Baltimore. So show us, Browns. Show us how you handle a little respect.

Last week: 9-6 overall, 8-7 vs. spread.

Overall: 123-68-1, 102-88-2