There are a lot of clouds this morning and temperatures are mild. There is a bit of humidity in the air, but certainly nothing oppressive. A southerly flow of air ahead of a cold front is bringing the somewhat tropical air to the region and will help boost temperatures to the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon. Some inland areas around Sanford could be slightly warmer if there is enough sunshine.

There is a line of showers to our west as I write this associated with a strong cold front. Behind this front temperatures are below average for mid-September. There are frost and freeze advisories and warnings for parts of the upper Midwest and indication of the extent of the cold air.

I expect a piece of this chilly fall air to arrive here over the weekend bringing a bright, but cool weekend for most of the time. There isn’t going be a frost in southern Maine.

Before we get to the cool air that line of showers will need to pass through the region and this will occur later this afternoon and evening around the commute. While some of you might see some heavier downpours, the rain looks to be scattered in nature and unfortunately for those of you in drought conditions we aren’t going to see much in the way of rain. Although the official tally of rain the past few months is normal or above, some of you have had much less rain and could use a soaking.

The chart below is from the American Model (GFS) and shows the weather forecast pictorially for the next week. Notice temperatures are somewhat cool after today and there isn’t much rain in the forecast.

This forecast is specifically for Waterville, but is similar in much of southern and central Maine. I chose Waterville today because; this is a big weekend for Colby College, my alma mater Tomorrow and Saturday feature the inauguration of Colby’s 20th President David Greene. The weather looks to cooperate for the events with cool temperatures and sunshine. That chance of showers in the forecast is likely not going to occur until Saturday night if it does at all.

The models don’t do well with the amount of rain from showers and thunderstorms as some areas will see more than is predicted and others significantly less. I would be thrilled if we get a quarter to half inch of rain, but I am not going to expect it.
Behind the front cooler and drier brings a touch of fall. The forecast for Saturday has been changing from day to day because of a weather system expected to be off our coastline. It appears this system will stay far enough off the coast to keep any rain over the ocean and even clouds at a minimum.

The map below indicates the chance of measurable rain for Saturday. Notice the numbers are very low with a 70 to 80 percent chance nothing will happen. So although you might hear of a shower possibility in the forecast it’s quite small.

Cool nights will also be with us this weekend for wonderful sleeping weather and crisp mornings. Speaking of crisp, apples are coming on strong and this is a great weekend to visit your favorite local farm. These farms depend on us for sustaining them and many only have a few weeks during the year to make enough money to survive. The memories of apple, peach or pear picking will stay with you or your kids forever. Have a great day.

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